Comprehensive analysis of key levels and market trends for BTC and ETH as of July 26, 2025:

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### 📊
| **Indicator** | **BTC** | **ETH** |
|----------------|-----------------|-----------------|
| **Current Price** | $117,629 | $3,725 |
| **24h Change** | -0.60% | +0.44% |
| **Total This Week** | -0.10% | +3.70% |
| **Recent Volatility Range** | $116,500-$120,200 | $3,530-$3,858 |

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### 📈 **Technical Analysis: Key Trends and Signals**
#### **BTC: High-level fluctuations, intensifying long and short competition**
- **Consolidation Range**: This week has been oscillating widely between $116,639 (support) and $120,204 (resistance), with multiple attempts to test the $119,000-$120,000 pressure zone failing, while the support between $117,500-$116,500 remains strong.
- **Momentum Indicator**：
- Short-term: Daily EMA15 rises to $34,300, if it holds above $117,500 it may build momentum for a breakout;
- Risk: MACD top divergence, need to be alert to sudden selling pressure leading to a break below support.
- **Capital Flow**: Miners and whales have recently sold (with an exchange inflow of 81,000 BTC in a single day), but long-term holders' on-chain positions are recovering, indicating a divergence.

#### **ETH: Triangle Convergence, Facing Directional Choice**
- **Structural Formation**: The daily chart shows a triangular convergence, with key support at $3,525 (Fibonacci level) and resistance at $3,765 (Bollinger Bands upper band). A breakout with volume above $3,765 or opening upward space may lead to a drop below $3,500, potentially triggering a deep correction to $3,000.
- **Long and Short Signals**:
- The four-hour MACD is close to the 0 axis; if it breaks below, it will turn bearish;
- Bollinger Bands are narrowing ($3,565-$3,765), need to pay attention to the breakout direction.
- **Capital Heat**: Spot has increased by 5.80% over the past 7 days, with futures open interest hitting a record of $14 billion, as the market bets on the expectation of ETH spot ETF approval.

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### ⚡ **Key Dynamics and Event-Driven**
1. **ETF Capital Diversion**:
- Bitcoin ETF saw fund fluctuations this week (single-day inflow of +$194 million on 7/24), while Ethereum ETF recorded a total net inflow of $8.88 billion, indicating an increased institutional willingness to allocate to ETH.
2. **"Shanzhai Season" Begins**:
- BTC market share has dropped to 58.5%, while mainstream altcoins like ETH and XRP have seen weekly gains of over 20%, indicating clear signs of capital rotation.
3. **Policy Expectations**:
- The final approval results for the Ethereum spot ETF are approaching (with trading possibly starting as soon as next week). If approved, it could stimulate a 60% increase (targeting $6,000); if rejected, it may trigger a deep correction.

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### 💡 **Operation Strategy Reference**
- **BTC**：
- *Short-term*：Range trading ($116,500 buy, $119,500 take profit), stop loss if it falls below $116,000;
- *Medium to Long-term*: Increase position after stabilizing above $120,000.
- **ETH**：
- *Breakthrough Strategy*: Buy on a breakout above $3,765, target $3,858→$4,000;
- *Defense Strategy*: Short with light position below $3,525, target $3,400, strict stop loss at $3,550.

> ✅ **Key Takeaway**: The volatility of ETH has recently exceeded 100%. It is recommended to reduce leverage before the ETF decision to guard against the risk of a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" market reversal.

### 💎
- **BTC**: The high-level fluctuations continue, a breakout requires volume support, pay attention to the effectiveness of the $117,500 support.
- **ETH**: The apex of the triangle convergence is facing a potential change in market direction, with the ETF approval results being the core catalyst in the short term. The bullish logic in the medium to long term (supply tightening + institutional inflow) remains unchanged.

It is recommended to closely track the ETF progress and the fluctuations in the US stock market at the end of the trading session, and to adjust positions flexibly. #余币宝年化收益破24%