Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead, Top Analyst Says

CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju, one of the most prominent cryptocurrency analysts, has opined that the "Bitcoin cycle theory" is now officially dead

Ju has apologized for his infamous "bull cycle is over" call that turned out to be terribly wrong.

"I sincerely apologize if my prediction impacted your investment. I’ll be more careful with forecasts and focus on providing data-driven insights," he said.

In early April, Ju penned a controversial post, in which he stated that the Bitcoin bull cycle was over. He argued that even large purchases from the likes of Strategy failed to move the price higher since the market was simply overwhelmed by sellers. Ju opined that Bitcoin was in a bear market since prices were failing to respond to new capital. The analyst predicted that Bitcoin was unlikely to rally in the short term

Back then, the cryptocurrency was changing hands close to the $80,000 level amid concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs. In May, Bitcoin ended up rallying to $112,000, and it later reached its current all-time high of $123,236 earlier this July. This means that those who heeded Ju's advice potentially missed out on a gain of roughly 54%.

"Trading feels pointless"

While addressing his misguided prediction, Ju opined that trading now feels pointless due to holders outnumbering traders

"Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we thought," Ju said

A typical bull cycle (when whales accumulate and eventually sell when retail traders join) is now dead. Now, old whales sell to new long-term whales (such as treasury companies). Ju has admitted that his main mistake was ignoring this shift

At the same time, Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer recently commented that Bitcoin continues to follow its four-year cycle "very closely."