BTC bull run is in full swing, my 10 major judgments on the future market.

1) Target range
• Bitcoin (Figure 1): The upper target for this round is approximately between 130,000 and 150,000, with a high probability of hitting 145,000.
• Ethereum (Figure 2): Likely to break the historical high of 4800. The target range is 5000–6500, corresponding to FIB 1.618. Based on the market share increase range of 20% - 50%, it also falls within the 5000 - 6500 range.
• Market capitalization of altcoins (Figure 3): It is highly likely to double to the current upward channel, around $580B, and is inclined to break through this channel.

2) Popular Track
• DeFi/RWA→Meme→AI

3) Current market situation of altcoins (these days)
• The possibility of the total market value of the ten external altcoins falling by more than 15% is relatively low.
• The proportion of retail investors among the holders of shanzhai is low, and the proportion of institutional investors has reached a historical high.
• Despite the recent rise, there has been no large-scale distribution and no basis for a collapse.

4) Short-term expectations
• The risk-reward ratio for building positions in altcoins at this stage is still acceptable, but it is no longer ideal.
• Once the overall market of altcoins rises again, there will be a large-scale distribution.
• After the rise, it is not advisable to chase higher prices by adding positions; it is recommended to wait for opportunities after a pullback.

5) Altcoins ≠ independent market
• Altcoins are just amplifiers of BTC's fluctuations; there is no long-term independent market.
• The altcoin seasons in March and December of 2024 are merely structural mean reversion. Although this round may be stronger and might break above the channel, it is still just mean reversion, and it is not yet time for BTC to decouple.

6) The final stage of the bull run?
• This round of rise is not the end of the bull run; the current market does not possess a sustained state of extreme enthusiasm.
• Retail participation is low, new liquidity has not been fully injected, funding risk appetite has not yet reached its peak, and massive credit has still not been released.
• After the main upward wave ends, there will still be a deep structural correction.

7) Expectation of a pullback
A deep adjustment occurred around September.
• The current stage liquidity is still not at its peak.
• The current US dollar index (Figure 4) has rebounded off a 15-year support level, which will compress liquidity in the next 2-3 months.
• The halving cycle is expected to arrive in October 2025.
• Investors take short-term profits and exit
The next round of phased risk clearance is inevitable.

8) Callback Rhythm
The time of sideways trading is continuously shortening.
• 7 months in 24 years
• Early 25: 5 months
• 1.5 months in 25 years
The next consolidation is expected to last no more than 2 months.

9) Expected pullback amplitude
• BTC may drop more than -20%, and BTC's market share will return to a strong position again.
• ETH and altcoins may once again fall below the mean, but will be stronger than in previous instances.

10) "The four-year halving cycle is dead"
• After the correction, the bull run will continue.
• At that time, there will be a lot of voices saying things like "the halving period has ended, the bull run is over," but that is only based on instinctive dogmatic thinking.
• No one should drive using a rearview mirror, but a large amount of capital will follow the past to predict the future. There will be a re-emergence of missed opportunities and short squeezes.
• The current macro structure is more similar to that of 2016 and 2020, on the eve of massive liquidity release.
Asset pricing will further increase rather than come to a sudden stop.

Current Position
• Everything is in DeFi, RWA, Meme, AI tracks.

Above. #ETH# #BTC# #PI#