Simply talk about the trends in the crypto world going forward.

1: The Shanzhai Prosperity Index has remained above 90 for 5 consecutive days, maintaining the previous view: that this stage is the last phase of the current bull market. The first phase of this bull market is the rise from early October 2023 to the end of March 2024; the second phase is from September 2024 to December 2024, and the third phase starts with a surge in June 2025.
2: The third phase is also divided into a small cycle of Bitcoin's solo performance and altcoin's catch-up. From May to June, Bitcoin's solo performance is dominant, and in early July, a spiral upward drive of Bitcoin and altcoins began. The judgment of reaching the peak between February and April still holds; if it is slow, this peak will likely not last until December, at most until mid to late October; if it is fast, the peak could be around early September.
3: Even if the top crashes and the bull market ends, it should be difficult for BTC to drop 50% in 3 months or 80% in a year like before; BTC will belong to Wall Street's large funds and institutional ETFs, used by listed companies as market making and capital reserves, as well as foreign exchange reserves for small and medium countries; Rich people and enterprises will also treat it as an asset for allocation ( to preserve value and increase by 2-5 times every 4 years, how appealing ). BTC has already distanced itself from new small investors.
4: However, the collapse rhythm of altcoins will be similar to before, or even more severe and deeper; once a downtrend is established, various coins' whales and institutions will definitely frantically sell off altcoins. ( Almost all altcoins are just air. ) A considerable portion of this will be converted into BTC for safekeeping because, for large funds, it is also necessary to guard against the potential thunderstorm risk of USDT. ( Although it is very small. ) Institutions and old players in a bear market will definitely hold both BTC and USDT simultaneously. ( Those with strong faith may hold only BTC throughout the entire bull-bear cycle, in short, they will not only hold USDT. ) Missing out on the long-term explosive rise of BTC is also a risk. ( As long as you sell, there is a risk of missing out because you did not buy back in time. ) If you truly realize it's a bear market and your clearing speed is slow, you can try to exchange all altcoins with BTC/X trading pairs for BTC to reduce risk. ( BTC will eventually rise back; if you hold onto altcoins, you will truly feel despair. )
5: There are currently 2-4 months left until the peak. Engaging in wave trading to sell high after buying low carries significant risks. Ordinary people should focus on buying at the bottom and selling at the top, using ( both when buying and selling in batches. Achieving 70-80% returns from the long-term trend is enough. Trying to capture every move, even seeking excess returns after wave corrections, often leads to the opposite outcome.
6: In future cycles, new small investors should play the top 100 potential altcoins in the same way they played BTC before. It was previously mentioned that the ETF will have an impact in the future. Each cycle can yield returns of 3-10 times. From this perspective, the crypto world is still the same crypto world, and it can be played for many more years, far better than certain stock or real estate markets in India or Vietnam. To prevent the risk of going to zero, try to avoid coins ranked 100 and beyond; also, avoid leveraged contracts in the market as much as possible. For young people with strong abilities, if you feel you can act faster than others, then go for new coins in hot tracks. )