The alt season has not disappeared; it is just waiting for the right conditions.

Alts are cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin (BTC). The altcoin season refers to the period in the cryptocurrency market when funds flow from Bitcoin to other crypto assets (commonly referred to as "alts").

The altcoin season usually occurs after Bitcoin has experienced a period of price increases and attracted significant attention and liquidity.

At this stage, investors and traders may seek higher returns by putting funds into altcoins that carry higher risks and potential higher rewards. This phenomenon of capital rotation has been regarded as a cyclical characteristic of the crypto market over the past few years. However, with the rise of Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETFs), this traditional cycle is showing signs of structural collapse. Bitcoin ETFs have attracted a significant inflow of funds, providing new investment channels for retail and institutional investors, while also leading to a decrease in liquidity and correlation in the altcoin market.

Altcoin season usually occurs in the final year of Bitcoin's four-year cycle. Altcoin season typically happens after Bitcoin reaches a historical high and enters a consolidation phase. If BTC stabilizes above $110,000, capital may eventually flow into alts.

For months, crypto assets traders have been anxiously refreshing price charts, anticipating the arrival of "altcoin season," when alts will soar significantly. However, despite bullish predictions and brief surges, the altcoin season has yet to materialize.

Bitcoin continues to dominate the market, leaving altcoin enthusiasts wondering: Why has the altcoin season been delayed? Will there still be an altcoin season?

The crypto market is flooded with over 15,000 altcoins, but liquidity fails to keep up. New projects are launched every day, yet the total capital pool remains fragmented, leading to diluted potential returns. This oversupply creates a "crowded market" where only tokens with outstanding utility or viral popularity can stand out!

Capital dispersion: More tokens compete for the same liquidity, making it difficult for even promising projects to gain attention.

The current Alts Season Index has fallen to 47, after reaching 55 on July 21. This index shows that in the past 90 days, about 47 projects among the top 100 Crypto Assets by market cap have outperformed Bitcoin. Note: The Crypto Assets Alts Season Index is a real-time indicator used to determine whether the current crypto market is in an altcoin-dominated season. This index is based on the performance of the top 100 alts relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days.

The current Altcoin Season Index has fallen from 55 on July 21 to 47, indicating that the market is in a "tug-of-war phase between Bitcoin and alts", and a clear altcoin season has not yet formed (typically requiring the index to remain above 75).

1. Index Dynamic Interpretation

• A value of 47 means that in the past 90 days, only 47% of the TOP 100 alts outperformed Bitcoin, indicating that Bitcoin remains relatively strong.
• Short-term volatility (55→47) reflects rapid capital rotation, with some alts taking profits, and market sentiment may turn cautious.

2. Market Phase Assessment

• Transition Period Characteristics: If the index remains fluctuating in the range of 40-60, it may be a accumulation phase, and it is necessary to observe whether it can break through the key threshold of 65.
• Historical Patterns: Altcoin seasons often occur during periods when Bitcoin is consolidating or correcting. If Bitcoin stabilizes, funds may gradually flow into altcoins.

3. Investor Strategy Recommendations

Position Structure: Configurable portion of strong altcoins (such as projects in the top 20% of recent performance), but must control position ratio (such as within 30%).

• Focus on Catalysts: Key tracking of Ethereum ETF progress, DeFi summer activities, and whether narratives like AI + Blockchain can drive sub-sectors.
• Risk Warning: If the index further drops below 40, it may indicate a return to Bitcoin dominance in the market, and caution should be taken regarding the risk of altcoin pullbacks.

4. On-chain data assistance observation

• Bitcoin Dominance: If it is currently below 55%, then alts still have room for a comeback.
• Stablecoin Inflows: An increase in the exchange's USDT/USDC balance may provide liquidity support for alts.

Conclusion: The current market is in a "wait-and-see period". It is recommended that investors adopt a strategy of "mainly Bitcoin, with altcoins as a supplement" and closely monitor whether the index can regain the 50 midline in the next two weeks. If it breaks through the previous high of 55, the altcoin market may accelerate.

Patience is a virtue, and the crypto market is cyclical. The altcoin season usually occurs in the last year of Bitcoin's four-year cycle.

Although 2025 is considered the next altcoin season, delays are not without precedent. 2017 vs. 2021: Both altcoin seasons occurred after Bitcoin reached historical highs and entered consolidation. If BTC stabilizes above $110,000, capital may eventually flow into alts. The altcoin season has not disappeared; it is just waiting for the right conditions.

The dominance of Bitcoin, macroeconomic pressures, and regulatory obstacles have temporarily pressed the pause button on the altcoin frenzy. However, history shows that once BTC enters a stable period and liquidity returns, alts will have their moment. Stay attentive, proceed with caution, and keep a close watch on Bitcoin's dominance.

The clock of the altcoin season is ticking - it's only a matter of time, it will definitely happen.