Ethereum 4-hour doji star resistance neck line break risk strategy

Core Logic and Long-Short Stalemate Analysis

• Shooting star sell signal: 4 consecutive shooting stars on the 4-hour chart indicate "selling starts when buying reaches above this position," with prices under pressure and difficult to rise—resistance level pointed by the arrow cannot be broken, making it hard for the upward trend to continue;

• The neckline's lifeline: The neckline marked by the white arrow is crucial; if it breaks down, the correction officially begins ("it may have just started"), and those chasing after a rise above $3600 should be wary of deep losses. "Long pain is worse than short pain; cutting losses is more rational."

Key Point Trading Strategy

• Long Conditions:

1. Volume breakout at 3545 USD → enter long on the right side, target 3578 → 3609 USD, stop loss on breakout;

2. Pull back to confirm support at 3458 USD → open a small long position, stop loss if it breaks below 3426 USD;

3. Long position of 3367 USD on the left side, stop loss if it falls below 3330 USD (suitable for buying the dip after a deep pullback).

• Short Selling Conditions:

1. If the volume breaks below 3512 USD → short on the right side, target 3508 → 3478 USD, reclaim stop loss;

2. Short with a light position at $3640, stop loss at $3677 if it breaks (short at resistance level, requires volume support);

3. Break below the neck line → increase short positions, looking down at 3423-3367 USD, clear pullback signal.

Multi-Period and Hedging Alerts

• 4-hour level:

◦ $3477 is the pivotal point for a pullback, breaking down to $3423, if the neckline is broken, it will accelerate;

◦ Resistance level not broken + doji star suppression, bulls weak, high probability of a pullback.

• Misconceptions about Hedging and Unhedging:

◦ There is no possibility of recovering short positions below 3000, don’t fantasize; opening a hedge is the "king of fools", not only do you lose on one side but also on both sides, and the only way out is to cut losses.

Discipline and Stop Loss Principles

• Response to High Buyers:

◦ For those who are holding positions above 3600, reduce positions near 3578 USD during the rebound, and decisively cut losses if it falls below 3477 USD to avoid deep losses;

• Go with the flow:

◦ It's safer to short before breaking resistance and the neckline; going long should be limited to short-term trades, quick in and out.

Summary: Ethereum is under pressure from the doji star, with the neckline being key. Core operation: If it breaks the neckline, go short; reduce positions and set stop losses on rebounds. Do not hold onto the hope of breaking even, as stop losses mean rebirth.