The US stock market is facing the expiration of $6.5 trillion in Options, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the crypto market.

Market Observation

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate this week, but the overall stance is hawkish. Officials have differing views on future policy, with 10 expecting at least two rate cuts this year, while 7 believe rates will remain unchanged. Current inflation is close to the 2% target but has not yet been fully reached. Economists warn that an early rate cut could lead to a rebound in inflation.

This Friday, approximately $6.5 trillion in US stock Options and derivatives contracts will expire, and this "triple witching day" event may lay the groundwork for market volatility next week. The founder of research firm Asym 500 LLC pointed out that since May, daily volatility in the US stock market has been relatively mild, thanks to the "pinning effect" created by a large number of put Options trades earlier this year. Analysts believe that this expiration date could become one of the largest expiration events in history, and investors should be wary of potential market volatility risks.

At an industry salon, a well-known expert stated that the virtual asset industry has entered the second growth curve phase, and the focus of the industry is shifting from "digital native" represented by Bitcoin to "digital twin" represented by stablecoins and asset tokenization. He pointed out that digital twin is the biggest innovation of distributed ledger technology, with stablecoins and asset tokenization being the most representative forms. Stablecoins are essentially the tokenization of currency, possessing both legal and technical attributes, and are considered the optimal form of currency at present, which will occupy an important position in the future global financial system.

The recent trend in the crypto market has been flat, with the price of Bitcoin remaining largely unchanged over the past three days and less than 100 million USD in liquidations in the past 24 hours. Analysts believe that the escalation of geopolitical tensions has heightened investors' risk aversion, increasing the demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasury bonds, while the demand for risk assets like Bitcoin has decreased. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has reinforced the strength of the dollar, putting pressure on Bitcoin. Technically, the price of Bitcoin is constrained by multiple moving average resistances around 106,000 USD, with low market trading volume and the relative strength index close to the midpoint, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

According to data analysis platform data, Bitcoin has faced continuous selling pressure since June. Although the price has recently rebounded, the trading volume remains low, indicating insufficient upward momentum. If demand continues to weaken, Bitcoin may short-term dip to the support range of $94,000 to $97,000, and the market needs more buying demand to achieve a breakthrough. Multiple analysis institutions have pointed out that the market is characterized by low volatility, a narrowing price range, and weakened on-chain activity, with retail participation declining and institutional investors becoming the dominant force.

Solana is currently oscillating within the key support range of $140-145, seen as a critical point for a potential trend reversal. Analysts believe this area has historically been a strong trend reversal support zone. If the SOL price falls below the $140 support, it could trigger an accelerated decline, targeting the $102-103 area. Conversely, if it can break through $160-170 with increased trading volume, it may reverse the current bearish pattern, with upside targets potentially reaching the $180-$220 range. Additionally, a Solana ETF submitted by an asset management company has recently been registered, seen as preliminary preparations for ETF approval. Although regulators have recently delayed their decision on another Spot Solana ETF, analysts believe the approval probability remains as high as 90%, which could instill confidence in the market.

In the altcoin market, the MEME coin LABUBU has dropped 23% in the last 24 hours, marking three consecutive days of decline, with its market cap falling from a recent high of $60 million to $27 million. This drop may be related to the temporary collapse of Labubu's toy prices. Within the Solana ecosystem, developers have proposed the idea of forking Solana and launched an experimental chain, with its token once reaching a market cap of $40 million. On the other hand, the BSC fund continues to buy altcoins as planned, with this purchase amounting to $200,000.

Key Data (as of June 20, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $104,658 (Year-to-date +11.46%), Daily spot trading volume $17.204 billion
• Ethereum: $2,520.03 (Year-to-date -24.9%), daily spot trading volume is $9.922 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.58 sat/vB ETH: 0.33 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 64.1%, ETH 9.4%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.10206
• Sector rise and fall: AI Meme down 5.8%; DePIN sector down 2.72%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 55,924 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 89.34 million USD, including 10.69 million USD in BTC liquidations, 18.12 million USD in ETH liquidations, and 5.38 million USD in SOL liquidations.

ETF Flows (as of June 19)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$390 million (net inflow for 8 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: +19.0998 million USD (net inflow for 3 days)

Today's Preview

• A trading platform will delist three spot trading pairs including CATI/FDUSD on June 20.
• A certain trading platform will delist 8 spot trading pairs including ALCX, NULS, MDT, BORA on June 20.
• A trading platform will launch Redbrick (BRIC) on June 21.
• Lista DAO (LISTA) will unlock approximately 33.44 million tokens on June 20 at 5 PM, which is 19.36% of the current circulating supply, valued at around 7 million USD.
• SPACE ID (ID) will unlock approximately 72.65 million tokens on June 22 at 8 AM, which is 16.88% of the current circulation, valued at around 12 million USD.

Top 500 market cap gainers today: Threshold (T) up 23.55%, Joe coin (JOE) up 15.66%, StormX (STMX) up 14.77%, Sei (SEI) up 11.52%, Mythos (MYTH) up 9.51%.

Hot News

• Bitcoin on-chain transaction volume hits an 18-month low, as the craze for Runes and Ordinals fades.
• Semler Scientific appoints Bitcoin Strategy Director, plans to hold 105,000 Bitcoins by the end of 2027.
• 49% of the surveyed institutions globally have used stablecoins for payments.
• The Bitcoin treasury reserves of listed companies have exceeded 768,500 coins, valued at over 8.2 billion USD.
• The growth rate of the "ancient supply" of Bitcoin that has not moved for over ten years has exceeded the daily new output.
• SOL Strategies submitted Form 40-F registration statement to the US SEC, planning to be listed on NASDAQ under the code "STKE".
• A certain company has secured $600 million in funding from ATW Partners to launch the HYPE treasury.
• Fetch.ai will launch a $50 million FET token buyback plan.
• The Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates unchanged and still expects to cut rates twice this year.