Market Discrepancies from the Perspective of Supply and Demand

The increase in the open interest of Bitcoin contracts and the strengthening of key points on the liquidation map reflect a growing divergence in the market. Currently, there are two mainstream views: a rebound turning into a reversal, or a second distribution in a downward continuation. Although these two views have opposite conclusions, they both stem from an analysis of supply and demand dynamics.

The view that a rebound may turn into a reversal

The analysis supporting this view is mainly developed from three perspectives:

1. The relationship between long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH).

• The LTH-RPC indicator shows that the loss ratio of long-term holders is increasing, approaching the layout opportunity range.
• The STH-RPC indicator's short-term holding cost line is converging towards the spending cost line, which may signal a trend reversal.

2. The supply and demand relationship between stablecoins and Bitcoin ( BTC-SSR )

The market value of stablecoins continues to rise, often indicating an increase in Bitcoin prices when there is a divergence from Bitcoin's market value.

3. The formation of dual anchor effects in areas of high and low chip concentration

The two ranges of $60,000-$70,000 and $93,000-$100,000 each gather about 11% of the chips, forming a symmetrical structure that may restrict the price to the range of $70,000-$93,000.

In addition, the impact momentum of tariff policies on the market is diminishing, supporting the view that the rebound is turning into a reversal.

Opinion on the Second Distribution of the Downtrend Continuation

This viewpoint suggests that the US stock market has entered a technical bear market, making it difficult for Bitcoin to remain unaffected. The analysis believes that the recent trend of the US stock market aligns with the Wyckoff distribution theory:

• At the beginning of November, PSY( first supply point ) appeared.
• Late November to early December is the climax for purchasing BC( ).
• In late December, there was a natural decline of AR( and a second test of ST).
• In January, a weak signal of SOW( appeared )
• Mid to late January for UT( surge and retreat )
• In mid to late February, there was a surge and then a pullback after the distribution of UTAD(, ).
• LPSY( last supply point appeared at the end of March )

According to this analysis, the US stock market has completed the final sprint and distribution phase of the bull market, and may continue to decline next.

The core divergence between the two viewpoints lies in whether the US stock market can establish a bottom here, and whether Bitcoin can operate independently of the US stock market's trends. The market's divergence is intensifying, and there is still uncertainty regarding future trends.