Four cycles in parallel: Bitcoin slow bull, meme coin bubble, technological innovation and small hotspots rotation.

Recently, some senior figures in the crypto world have been hotly discussing an important topic - the traditional "four-year cycle" theory may have become outdated.

If you still insist on holding long-term and waiting for a surge, expecting a bull market to bring easy returns of tenfold or even a hundredfold, you are likely already out of touch with the market. Why is that?

Because savvy investors in the market have realized a key change: the current crypto assets market no longer operates under a single model, but instead, there are simultaneously four completely different cyclical models:

Each cycle pattern has its own unique rhythm, strategy, and profit logic.

Bitcoin's ultra-long cycle: retail investors exit, a decade-long slow bull market may become a trend

The traditional halving cycle model is no longer applicable. Bitcoin has evolved from a speculative target to an institutional allocation asset, and the operating logic of large funds such as Wall Street, listed companies, and ETFs is completely different from the "bull-bear rotation" thinking of retail investors.

The key change is that the proportion of retail investors holding coins has significantly decreased, while institutional funds, represented by a certain technology company, are buying in large quantities. This fundamental change in the holding structure is reshaping the pricing mechanism and volatility characteristics of Bitcoin.

Retail investors face the dual pressure of time and opportunity cost. Institutional investors can afford to hold for 3-5 years to wait for the long-term value of Bitcoin to be realized, while retail investors clearly find it difficult to have such patience and financial strength.

In the future, we may see a slow upward trend in Bitcoin lasting over ten years. The annualized return may stabilize in the range of 20-30%, but the intraday volatility will significantly decrease, resembling a steadily growing tech stock. As for the price ceiling of Bitcoin, it may be difficult to predict from the perspective of retail investors at the moment.

Meme Coin Short Cycle: From Grassroots Carnival to Professional Harvesting

The claim that meme coins will rise in the long term does have some merit. During periods lacking technical narratives, the meme coin narrative always fills the market's "boredom vacuum" in sync with market sentiment, capital, and attention.

What is the essence of meme coins? It is a speculative vehicle for "instant gratification." It does not require a white paper, technical validation, or roadmap; it only needs a symbol that resonates. From pet themes to political topics, from AI concepts to community IPs, meme coins have developed into a complete "emotional monetization" industrial chain.

More importantly, the rapid characteristics of meme coins make them a barometer of market sentiment and a reservoir of funds. When funds are abundant, meme coins become the preferred testing ground for hot money; when funds are scarce, they turn into the last refuge for speculative investment.

However, the reality is harsh, and the meme coin market is evolving from "grassroots carnival" to "professional competition." It is becoming increasingly difficult for ordinary investors to profit from this high-frequency rotation.

The stories of small retail investors who insist on holding and eventually reaping huge rewards may become increasingly rare. The entry of professional teams, technical experts, and large funds will make this once "grassroots paradise" highly competitive.

Technological Innovation Long Cycle: Bottom Layout, Starting 10 Times in 3 Years?

The technological narrative has not disappeared. Innovations that truly have technical barriers, such as Layer 2 scaling, zero-knowledge proof technology, and AI infrastructure, require 2-3 years or even longer development time to see actual effects. These types of projects follow the technology maturity curve, rather than the emotional cycle of capital markets—there is a fundamental time misalignment between the two.

The reason why the technical narrative is criticized by the market lies entirely in the fact that an overly high valuation is given when the project is still in the conceptual stage, leading to an undervaluation during the "valley period" when the technology is actually starting to be implemented. This determines that the value release of technical projects presents a non-linear leap characteristic.

For investors with patience and technical judgment, positioning in truly valuable technology projects during a "trough period" may be the best strategy to achieve excess returns. However, the premise is that you must be able to endure long waiting periods and market hardships, as well as potential doubts.

Small hot spots short cycle: 1-3 months window period, brewing the main upward trend.

Before the main technical narrative takes shape, various small hotspots rapidly rotate, from the tokenization of physical assets to decentralized physical infrastructure, from AI smart agents to AI infrastructure (model context protocols + inter-agent communication), each small hotspot may only have a window period of 1-3 months.

This fragmented narrative and high-frequency rotation reflect the dual constraints of current market attention scarcity and the efficiency of capital seeking profit.

It is not difficult to find that a typical small hotspot cycle follows six stages: concept verification, capital testing, public opinion amplification, panic entry, overvaluation, and capital withdrawal. Want to profit in this model? The key is to enter during the "concept verification" to "capital testing" stage and exit at the peak of "panic entry."

The competition between small hotspots is essentially a zero-sum game of attention resources. However, there are technical correlations and conceptual progressions between these hotspots. For example, the model context protocols and inter-agent communication standards in AI infrastructure are, in fact, a technical underlying reconstruction of the AI agent narrative. If the subsequent narrative can continue from previous hotspots, forming a systematic upgrade linkage, and truly establish a sustainable value closed loop during the linkage process, it is very likely that a super trend similar to the DeFi frenzy will emerge.

From the perspective of the existing small hotspot pattern, the AI infrastructure layer is most likely to achieve breakthroughs first. If underlying technologies such as model context protocols, inter-agent communication standards, distributed computing power, inference, and data networks can be organically integrated, there is indeed potential to construct a super narrative similar to the "AI boom."

In general, understanding the essence of these four parallel cycle models is essential to find appropriate strategies within their respective rhythms. There is no doubt that the singular "four-year cycle" mindset is completely out of sync with the complexity of the current market.

Adapting to the new norm of "multi-cycle parallel" may be the key to truly profiting in this round of the market.