From 100,000 to 75,000: The cyclical truth behind the Depth pullback and signals for the bull run restart.

Written by: BITCOIN MAGAZINE PRO

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

Bitcoin did not experience the explosive start that many expected in early 2025. After peaking significantly above the $100,000 mark, the price fell sharply, leading investors and analysts to question: what stage of the halving cycle is Bitcoin currently in? In this article, we will cut through the market noise and delve into a series of key on-chain indicators and macroeconomic signals to analyze whether the Bitcoin bull market still has sustainability, or if it is about to face a deeper correction?

Health correction or the end of the bull market?

An ideal entry point is the MVRV-Z indicator. This long-standing valuation metric measures asset status by comparing the market value of a cryptocurrency to its realized value (Market Value to Realized Value). When this value fell from a peak of 3.36 to around 1.43, it coincided with Bitcoin's price dropping sharply from a near $100,000 high to a $75,000 local low. Intuitively, a price correction of this magnitude, around 30%, is indeed quite severe.

Figure 1: Recently, the MVRV Z-Score has rebounded from the low of 1.43 in 2025.

Historically, the current MVRV-Z indicator level often marks a local bottom rather than a top. In past cycles such as in 2017 and 2021, the market experienced similar pullbacks, after which the BTC price resumed its upward trend. In short, although this wave of decline has shaken investor confidence, it is essentially consistent with historical corrections during a bull market cycle.

Pay attention to the movements of smart money.

Another key indicator is the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) multiple. This metric weighs the holding time of Bitcoin before transactions to measure its on-chain transfer speed. When this multiple soars, it usually indicates that experienced holders are taking profits; if it remains low for an extended period, it may suggest that the market is in an accumulation phase.

Currently, the indicator is deeply in the "green zone," with levels similar to those at the end of a bear market or the beginning of a recovery. As the BTC price has sharply reversed from above $100,000, we may be witnessing the end of the profit-taking wave, while some long-term accumulation behaviors have become increasingly evident, indicating that participants are positioning themselves in advance for future price increases.

Figure 2: The current VDD multiple indicates that long-term holders are in the accumulation phase.

One of the most insightful on-chain metrics is the "Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flow Chart", which breaks down realized capital based on the age of the coin, isolating different groups such as new entrants (holding < 1 month) and medium-term holders (1-2 years) to observe the capital migration path. The red band (new entrants) rose sharply near the all-time high of $106,000, indicating that there was plenty of panic buying driven by FOMO sentiment at the top of the market at that time. Since then, the group's activity has cooled significantly, falling back to levels consistent with the early to mid-term bull market.

On the contrary, the group holding tokens for 1-2 years (usually accumulators with macro insights) has restarted the trend of increasing holdings. This reverse correlation reveals the core logic of market operations: when long-term holders accumulate chips at the bottom, new investors often experience panic selling or choose to exit. This pattern of fund flow, where one rises as the other falls, closely aligns with the "accumulation-distribution" pattern observed during the complete bull market cycle of 2020-2021, recreating typical characteristics found in historical cycles.

Figure 3: The Bitcoin cycle capital flow chart shows BTC flowing back to more experienced holders.

What stage are we at now?

From a macro perspective, we divide the Bitcoin market cycle into three key stages:

Bear market phase: deep correction (70-90%)

Recovery Phase: Reclaim Historical Highs

Bull market growth phase: parabolic rise after breaking the previous high

The bear markets in 2015 and 2018 lasted approximately 13 to 14 months, respectively. Our recent bear market cycle also lasted for 14 months. Historically, the market recovery phase generally requires 23 to 26 months, and we are currently within this typical recovery time window.

Figure 4: Predicting Potential Bull Market Peaks Using Historical Cycle Trends

However, the performance during this bull market phase has been somewhat unusual. Bitcoin did not immediately experience a surge after breaking through its historical high but instead showed a pullback. This may indicate that the market is building a higher low before entering a steeper rising channel in the exponential growth phase. If we use the average durations of 9 months and 11 months from past cycles as a reference, assuming that the bull market can continue, we expect the potential peak of this cycle to occur around September 2025.

Macroeconomic risk

Despite the encouraging on-chain data, macroeconomic headwinds still persist. Analysis of the correlation chart between the S&P 500 index and Bitcoin indicates that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with the US stock market. As concerns about a potential global recession intensify, the ongoing weakness in traditional markets may affect Bitcoin's ability to rebound in the short term.

Figure 5: Correlation between Bitcoin and US Stocks

Conclusion

As we can see in the analysis, key on-chain indicators such as the MVRV Z score, value days destroyed, and Bitcoin cycle fund flows indicate that the market is exhibiting a healthy development trend in line with cyclical patterns, and showing signs of continued accumulation by long-term holders. However, there remains significant macroeconomic uncertainty in the market, which are key risks that require close attention.

This cycle is slower and more volatile than previous cycles, but it has not broken the historical structural pattern. Bitcoin seems to be gearing up, ready to rise again, and if the traditional markets do not worsen further, it may reach new peaks in the third quarter or early fourth quarter.