From 100,000 to 75,000: The cyclical truth behind the Depth pullback and signals for the bull run restart

Original Title: Where Are We In The Bitcoin Cycle?

Author: BITCOIN MAGAZINE PRO

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

Bitcoin did not experience the explosive start that many expected in early 2025. After peaking above the $100,000 mark, the price dropped significantly, leading investors and analysts to question: at which stage of the halving cycle is Bitcoin currently? In this article, we will penetrate the market noise and deeply analyze a series of key on-chain indicators and macroeconomic signals to assess whether the Bitcoin bull market still has sustainability, or if it is about to face a deeper correction.

Health pullback or the end of the bull market?

An ideal entry point is the MVRV-Z indicator. This long-standing valuation metric measures the asset’s status by comparing the market value of cryptocurrencies to their realized value (Market Value to Realized Value). When this value fell from a peak of 3.36 to around 1.43, it coincided with Bitcoin’s price plunging from a high of nearly $100,000 to a phase low of $75,000. Intuitively, such a 30% price correction is indeed quite severe.

Figure 1: Recently, the MVRV Z-Score has rebounded from the low point of 1.43 in 2025.

Historically, the current MVRV-Z indicator levels often signify local bottoms rather than tops. In past cycles like 2017 and 2021, the market experienced similar pullbacks, after which the BTC price resumed its upward trend. In short, although this wave of decline has shaken investor confidence, it is essentially consistent with historical corrections during bull market cycles.

Follow the smart money trends

Another key metric is the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) multiple. This metric weights the holding time of Bitcoin before transactions, measuring its on-chain transfer speed. When this multiple skyrockets, it usually indicates that experienced holders are taking profits; if it remains low for an extended period, it may suggest that the market is in an accumulation phase.

Currently, the indicator is deeply entrenched in the “green zone,” with levels similar to those at the end of a bear market or the early stages of a recovery. As the BTC price has sharply reversed from above $100,000, we may be witnessing the end of a profit-taking wave, while some long-term accumulation behavior has become increasingly evident, indicating that participants are positioning themselves for future price increases.

Figure 2: The current VDD multiple indicates that long-term holders are in the accumulation phase.

One of the most insightful on-chain indicators is the “Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flow Chart,” which segments realized capital based on coin age, isolating different groups such as new entrants (holding time < 1 month) and medium-term holders (1-2 years) to observe the capital migration path. The red band (new entrants) sharply rose near the historical high of $106,000, indicating a significant amount of panic buying driven by FOMO sentiment at the market peak. Since then, the activity of this group has significantly cooled, returning to levels consistent with the early to mid-stages of the bull market.

On the contrary, the group holding tokens for 1-2 years (usually accumulators with macro insights) has restarted the trend of increasing holdings. This reverse correlation reveals the core logic of market operation: when long-term holders accumulate chips at the bottom, new investors are often experiencing panic selling or choosing to exit. This ebb and flow of capital movement pattern highly corresponds with the “accumulation-distribution” pattern presented during the complete bull market cycle of 2020-2021, reflecting the typical characteristics of historical cycles.

Figure 3: The Bitcoin cyclical capital flow chart shows that BTC is flowing back to more experienced holders. Which stage are we in now?

From a macro perspective, we divide the Bitcoin market cycle into three key stages:

Bear Market Phase: Deep Correction (70-90%)

Recovery Phase: Reclaiming Historical Highs

Bull market growth phase: parabolic rise after breaking the previous high

The bear markets in 2015 and 2018 lasted approximately 13 to 14 months respectively. Our recent bear market cycle also lasted for 14 months. Generally, the market recovery phase in historical cycles takes about 23 to 26 months, and we are currently within this typical recovery time window.

Figure 4: Using Historical Cycle Trends to Predict Potential Bull Market Peaks

However, the performance during this bull market phase has been somewhat unusual. Bitcoin did not experience an immediate surge after breaking through its historical high, but instead saw a pullback. This may indicate that the market is building a higher low before entering a steeper upward channel in the exponential growth phase. If we reference the average durations of 9 months and 11 months in the previous cycles’ exponential phases, assuming the bull market can continue, we expect the potential peak of this cycle to occur around September 2025.

Macroeconomic risk

Despite the encouraging on-chain data, macro adverse factors still exist. An analysis of the correlation chart between the S&P 500 index and Bitcoin indicates that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with the U.S. stock market. As concerns about a potential global recession intensify, the continued weakness in traditional markets may affect Bitcoin’s ability to rebound in the short term.

Figure 5: Conclusion on the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks

As we have seen in the analysis, key on-chain indicators such as the MVRV Z-score, value days destroyed, and Bitcoin cycle fund flows indicate that the market is showing a healthy development in line with cyclical patterns, and there are signs of continued accumulation by long-term holders. However, significant macroeconomic uncertainties still exist in the market, which are key risks that need to be closely monitored.

This current cycle is slower and more volatile than previous cycles, but it has not broken the historical structural pattern. Bitcoin seems to be poised for another upward movement, and if the traditional market does not deteriorate further, it may reach a new peak in the third quarter or early fourth quarter.