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The key step for the Federal Reserve to solve communication problems may be to cancel the "dot plot".
Odaily Planet Daily News Bloomberg columnist Clive Crook suggests that in light of the poor communication at the recent December meeting, the Fed’s review of its monetary policy framework should seriously consider abandoning the idea of ‘dot plot’. The Fed is about to begin a review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication. This month’s rate cut and the investor response highlight the necessity of such a review. Clive Crook believes that one way to solve this problem is to reform the economic forecast summary, including abolishing the ‘dot plot’ that predicts future interest rates. The ‘dot plot’ has always been prone to misinterpretation, to the point that the Federal Reserve has repeatedly insisted that it is not a plan or commitment, but merely a prediction. In fact, it is not even a consensus-based prediction in the usual sense, as it does not represent a consensus. It is simply an individual official’s belief, based on their own different and potentially incompatible beliefs about what will happen, about what they consider to be a ‘reasonable’ prediction. (Jinshi)