Morgan Stanley raised its Brent crude oil price forecast due to supply constraints

Morgan Stanley raised its oil price forecast for 2024 and 2025 by $2.50-$5 per barrel, saying that the recent decline in inventories suggests that the market is tighter than initially expected. It now expects Brent to be around $82.50/b in the first quarter compared to $80/b previously, around $80/b in the fourth quarter, compared to $75/b previously, and $77.50 by the second half of 2025 from $72.50 previously. Analysts, including Martijn Rats, believe that OPEC’s better-than-expected implementation of the production cut policy and the reduction in U.S. crude oil production due to cold weather have contributed to the inventory reduction. The bank also raised its oil demand growth forecast to 1.5 million b/d from 1.3 million b/d and lowered its demand growth forecast for non-OPEC countries to 1.5 million b/d from 1.7 million b/d.