Expert Predicts XRP Price Based on XRP Origin Cycle Theory

While XRP continues to grapple with market uncertainties, a well-known analyst recently spotlighted a bullish trend he calls the origin cycle theory.

Notably, this origin cycle theory, presented by market watcher Cobb in his latest analysis, cites historical context to project how XRP price action could play out in the coming weeks. Specifically, the theory highlights a five-wave structure that has played out since 2018, with the last wave potentially pushing prices toward $17.

XRP’s Two 5-Wave Structure

For context, the first wave began when XRP soared 817% from $0.00669 in October 2013 to a new peak of $0.06144 by December 2013, representing Wave 1. However, when the corrective Wave 2 emerged, XRP collapsed from the $0.06144 high to a low of $0.00281 in July 2014. Data shows that this marked the floor of the structure.

Meanwhile, during Wave 3, XRP rallied 896% from the $0.00281 floor to $0.0280 by December 2014. Nonetheless, it failed to reclaim the previous peak from December 2013. After this upsurge, another correction came up with Wave 4, leading to a higher low of $0.00525, from which XRP recovered to a new ATH of $0.3988 in May 2017 during Wave 5.

XRP 1W Chart | CobbAccording to Cobb’s chart, the second 5-wave structure emerged almost immediately, with Wave 1 of this second structure pushing prices to the $3.31 peak in January 2018. For Wave 2, XRP collapsed from the $3.31 peak to $0.1140 by March 2020. Again, this low price represented the floor of the second structure.

From here, XRP recovered to $1.96 in April 2021 during the Wave 3 rally, but failed to recover the previous 2018 high, similar to the pattern observed during the first structure. Meanwhile, after reaching the $1.96 high in 2021, XRP collapsed again on the back of the fourth wave, reaching the $0.5 low in November 2024.

Wave 5 Could Push Prices to $17

Now, Cobb suggests that the altcoin has already entered Wave 5. Specifically, this fifth wave began when XRP exploded following President Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election. So far, the token has already breached the 2018 peak, reaching $3.66 in July 2025, but data from the chart indicates that the fifth wave is far from over.

According to Cobb, XRP could continue to rally with this wave once market strength resurfaces, possibly reaching a new peak between $12.5 and $25.5, with an average target of $17.5. “Am I retarded or does this make sense?” The analyst questioned. From the current price of $2.17, XRP would need to rise by 706% to claim the $17.5 average target.

Interestingly, other market analysts have also projected possible rallies to the $17 level. For instance, last November, market watcher EGRAG suggested that XRP could claim $17 if its market dominance rose to reclaim the 20% mark in a situation where Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s prediction of a $5 trillion broader market cap plays out.