Pinhao: The rise in the US stock market cannot reflect the economic situation.

Jin10 data reported on August 22 that it is important to distinguish between the performance of the U.S. stock market and the overall economy. Pinhao stated in a report that the two are not the same. The company added that the S&P 500 index has risen nearly 10% so far this year, which is a considerable increase, but the process has been bumpy, with about a 20% drawdown in April. However, this performance masks some facts, such as the annualized growth rate of real consumer spending in the first half of 2025 being 1%, while the real GDP growth rate has been slowing. Pinhao added that given these indicators, a Bloomberg survey of economists shows that the average probability of a U.S. recession in the next year is 35%, which is not surprising.