"Too much positivity." An analyst discussed the prospects of the cryptocurrency market.

"RBC-Crypto" does not provide investment advice, the material is published solely for informational purposes. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset that can lead to financial losses.

The current state of the crypto market, forecasts for Bitcoin, as well as the factors that will influence cryptocurrency prices in the coming days — all of this was discussed by the author of the Telegram channel "Financial Circle" Anatoly Radchenko in a new video from May 5, recorded specifically for the participants of the RBC Crypto Forum.

According to him, the week promises to be interesting due to the decision of the U.S. government on the refinancing rate. It will be announced on Wednesday, and there will probably be no surprises — the market is pricing in about a 98% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep the rate unchanged, the expert specified.

He added that the most important thing is the market signal that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give in his speech, which he usually delivers about 30 minutes after the rate decision. This signal is likely to be uncertain, as it is unclear what to expect from U.S. foreign policy regarding trade tariffs in the current situation.

"I think Powell will be quite restrained, trying to calm the market. But overall, there will be a rather negative reaction in the market. I don't think there is any positivity to be found here, so the market has already priced in a lot of positivity recently regarding the idea that China and America will try to come to an agreement," Radchenko believes.

He noted that in the current situation, "too much positivity" is already priced into the cryptocurrency — since mid-April, Bitcoin has risen from $83,000 to $94,000.

Growth of altcoins

At the same time, other cryptocurrencies did not grow as strongly. Ethereum (ETH), according to the expert, "thank you for being alive." Mainly, last week saw an increase in so-called mid-cap ( assets with medium capitalization) and small-cap ( assets with small capitalization).

Of these, those projects related to artificial intelligence technologies (AI) and memes, such as Fartcoin (FARTCOIN), Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL), and aixbt by Virtuals (AIXBT), showed growth. Some coins last week grew only "on the hype" - these are Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Monero (XMR).

Purchases Strategy

Radchenko also noted that the growth of Bitcoin is observed after Michael Saylor's Strategy company reports on Bitcoin purchases on Mondays.

"When he buys Bitcoin, and the last purchases were quite large, at $1.5 billion, we see a rise in Bitcoin. And partly, this slightly transfers to the rise in altcoins. This is not even the purchase of altcoins; it is the weakening of selling pressure in hopes of price increases," said the expert.

On April 28, Strategy reported the purchase of 15,355 bitcoins for $1.42 billion. On May 5, Saylor's company announced that it acquired another 1,895 bitcoins for $180.3 million. As of May 4, Strategy's balance includes 555,450 bitcoins (, about 2.6% of the total issuance ), for which the company has spent approximately $38.08 billion since 2020 at an average purchase price of $68,550 per 1 BTC.

According to his estimates, the state of Bitcoin is currently held in the hands of Michael Saylor, while all altcoins are clinging to Bitcoin "with one hand, hanging like from a cliff." In turn, says Radchenko, this entire structure relies on the American financial system, which cannot find a solution for who will support it moving forward — whether it will be through tariffs of 145% from China, or from Canada and Mexico, or perhaps from Europe.

Wide range

According to the expert, the situation is far from any outcome, and the market will experience quite volatile movements in the near future. Radchenko noted that the current BTC price is at the upper boundary of the range, and further painless corrections for the market are possible.

The expert advises against extreme opinions regarding whether prices will only go up or only down. In his assessment, the range is broad — from $80,000 to $98,000, and it is unlikely that one can speak of any greater certainty at this time.

Demand for Bitcoin

According to Radchenko, all major companies are following the example of Strategy, and this positively affects the coin. Michael Saylor reported at the Token2049 conference in Dubai that he plans to raise another $84 billion for further Bitcoin purchases this year. Japanese Metaplanet, American miners, the new fund Twenty One, which was invested in by Tether and Bitfinex — this is not an exhaustive list of companies where "Bitcoin continues to flow," the expert reminded.

Partly, he links this to the fact that Bitcoin is the largest Cryptocurrency, and the US has started to engage in active activities with the aim of becoming a clear leader in this field and controlling the digital assets market by controlling Bitcoin.

The stablecoin market is also of interest to the States, as by regulating it, they will try to maintain the hegemony of the dollar, says the expert. The USA wants to dictate its terms, so the current situation in the crypto market is a "long game," believes Radchenko.

Summer holidays

The expert also reminded about the well-known saying among traders "sell in May and go away" — sell in May and go on vacation for the summer holidays. He explained that traditionally in the summer months, if there are no force majeures, traders try not to make sharp moves. Fund managers and institutional investors try to push their affairs to September—October.

According to Radchenko, one should prepare for a choppy market (choppy market) — a market condition where prices fluctuate significantly up and down, but without a clear trend in any direction, without volumes, and without serious buyers and sellers.