Food for thought: Market Trends Shift Silicon Valley and Signature Bank have had a significant impact on the market, as evidenced by the current trends. The Inflationary Trade has been replaced by the Recessionary Trade, and investors are flocking to the safety of bonds. The U.S. 2-year bond yield has dropped from 5% to 4%, while the 10-year bond yield has fallen from 4% to 3.4%. This is a clear sign that investors are concerned about the state of the economy and are looking for safe havens for their money. Most commodities have also taken a hit, as investors become increasingly risk-averse. This is another sign that the market is anticipating a period of economic uncertainty. The Federal Reserve is also closely monitoring these trends, and there has been a shift in expectations for their upcoming meeting on March 22. Only a 72% probability of a 25 point-hike is predicted, which is a drop from the 80% probability of a 50 point-hike that was predicted just a week ago. Overall, it is clear that the market is reacting to the current state of the economy, and investors are looking for safe investments to weather the storm. The impact of Silicon Valley and Signature Bank is just one piece of a larger puzzle, but it is clear that their influence is being felt in the current market trends. Traders should be on the lookout for additional market volatility this week as several key macroeconomic events are scheduled to take place. On Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index [CPI] will be released, followed by the Producer Price Index [PPI] on Wednesday. Finally, on Thursday, the jobless claims report will be published.

Food for thought: BTC Bull Narrative Resurgence Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, is experiencing a new bullish phase, driven by a narrative that encompasses several factors. One of the main drivers is the Federal Reserve's informal quantitative easing program to prevent a market-wide collapse of the bank sector, which is expected to continue until March 2024. Another key factor is the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which is expected to occur in around 420 days. This event, which happens roughly every four years, reduces the amount of new Bitcoin that is issued to miners by 50%. This reduces the supply of new coins entering the market, which could potentially increase their value. Major institutions and retail traders have also played a role in driving the current Bitcoin rally. Many have given up their bearish positions on the cryptocurrency and are now actively buying and holding Bitcoin. This increased demand is seen as a positive signal for Bitcoin's long-term prospects. The recent bailouts of crypto-friendly banks have also contributed to the narrative driving the Bitcoin bull cycle. The bailouts have revealed the inefficiency of banks as self-custodians of funds, which has led to increased interest in self-custody solutions such as Bitcoin. As a decentralized and trustless system, Bitcoin is seen as a more secure way to store and transfer wealth. Hong Kong's emergence as a crypto hub and China's relaxation of regulations on cryptocurrency trading have also been cited as factors driving the current Bitcoin rally. These developments have led to increased adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in Asia, which is seen as a significant growth market for the industry. Finally, a generational shift from baby boomers to Generation Z is seen as a potential driver of Bitcoin's long-term success. Younger generations are generally more comfortable with technology and more skeptical of traditional financial institutions. This has led to increased interest in cryptocurrencies as a new and disruptive form of finance. In conclusion, Bitcoin's current bullish phase is being driven by a combination of factors, including the Federal Reserve's QE program, the upcoming Bitcoin halving, increased institutional and retail adoption, the inefficiency of traditional banking systems, Asia's growing adoption of cryptocurrencies, and a generational shift towards new forms of finance. While the cryptocurrency market remains volatile and unpredictable, many observers remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects.

Market Wizards - Market Rewards Persistency and Discipline The book "Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager is a must-read for anyone interested in finance and investing, as it offers a unique look into the world of successful traders. What's interesting is that the traders featured in the book come from diverse backgrounds, but they all share one common trait - they have achieved exceptional success in the markets. The book provides valuable lessons on the strategies, philosophies, and experiences of these traders, and emphasizes the importance of having a well-defined trading system, managing risk, and maintaining a positive mindset. One of the key takeaways from the book is that persistent learners are rewarded in the market. The traders interviewed by Schwager stress the importance of having a system in place to eliminate emotion and bias from the decision-making process. They also emphasize the importance of being disciplined and sticking to the system, even when faced with losses. Moreover, the traders have a set of strict rules they follow, regardless of market conditions, ensuring that their decisions are based on objective criteria. Another crucial aspect of successful trading highlighted in the book is risk management. The traders understand that risk is inherent in trading and that managing it properly is crucial to long-term success. They discuss the importance of having a well-defined risk management plan in place to protect their capital and prevent large losses. Diversification of the portfolio is also crucial to reduce overall risk. The traders also share their thoughts on the psychology of trading. They discuss how having a positive mindset, the ability to stay calm under pressure, and being able to accept losses without letting emotions drive decisions is crucial to success. They stress the importance of being able to handle the stress of trading while maintaining a healthy work-life balance. In conclusion, "Market Wizards" provides valuable insights into the world of successful trading, highlighting the importance of having a well-defined trading system, managing risk, and maintaining a positive mindset. The book's practical advice and lessons can be applied to any type of trading or investing, making it a must-read for anyone looking to gain a deeper understanding of the world of finance and investing. Ultimately, the book's message is clear: the market rewards those who are persistent learners and disciplined traders.

The US Housing Market in 2023: MBA Data Reveals Possible Rebound in Refinancing The MBA mortgage data suggests that there have been significant changes in the housing market in recent years. One key trend is the impact of higher mortgage rates on refinancing activity. According to the MBA Refinance Application Index, the refinance index experienced a sharp decline in 2022, likely due to the increased cost of borrowing associated with higher mortgage rates. This decline in refinancing activity is indicative of a broader trend towards lower overall demand for mortgages, as borrowers may be deterred by the higher costs of borrowing. However, there are some indications of a possible rebound in refinancing activity as of 2023, as suggested by the slight tick noted in the data. This could be due to a variety of factors, such as changes in the broader economic environment or adjustments to lending policies by mortgage providers. Nonetheless, the data suggests that the impact of higher mortgage rates on refinancing activity is likely to continue to be a key trend in the housing market in the coming years. Another important trend highlighted by MBA Purchase Application Index is the significant decline in purchase activity, which is down 36% year-over-year unadjusted. This suggests that fewer people are buying homes, likely due to a combination of factors such as higher mortgage rates, tighter lending standards, and a limited supply of available homes. This decline in purchase activity could have broader implications for the housing market and the broader economy, as home buying and construction are often seen as key drivers of economic growth.

Breaking Records: The Surging US Petroleum Exports and Inventories The US petroleum industry is a major contributor to the country's economy and has significant impacts on the global energy landscape. In order to understand the current state of the US petroleum market, it's important to look at two key metrics: petroleum inventories and petroleum exports. Petroleum inventories refer to the amount of crude oil and refined products that are stored in tanks and other facilities across the country. These inventories are closely monitored by industry analysts and investors as they provide important insights into supply and demand dynamics, production levels, and market trends. Charts that depict US petroleum inventories in MB [million barrels] are regularly published by industry associations, government agencies, and other sources to help stakeholders keep track of these metrics. In recent years, the US has also emerged as a major exporter of petroleum products, including crude oil and refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. According to the latest data, US total petroleum exports surged to a new record high of approximately 12 million barrels per day (b/d) in the previous week. This was driven by strong demand from overseas markets, as well as the US industry's increasing export capabilities.

China to Set New Growth Target: What It May Mean for Global Markets, Liquidity, and the Crypto Sector China is expected to announce a new growth target during the National People's Congress next week. Recently, China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed a strong reading of 52.6, indicating the second consecutive month of economic growth. Additionally, China experienced growth in home sales for the first time in 20 months and export orders for the first time in nearly two years. The data set suggests that China's economy is recovering from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and this could have implications for global financial markets and the flow of liquidity. Firstly, positive economic data from China could boost investor confidence in the country's economic recovery, leading to increased investment flows into China's equity and bond markets. This could potentially drive up asset prices in these markets, which could spill over into other global markets. Secondly, increased economic activity in China could lead to higher demand for commodities, such as iron ore, copper, and oil, which are key inputs in China's manufacturing sector. This could benefit commodity-exporting countries, such as Australia, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia, as well as companies involved in the production and transportation of these commodities. Thirdly, the flow of liquidity could also be affected by the Chinese government's response to the economic recovery. If China maintains an accommodative monetary policy stance, this could provide a supportive backdrop for global liquidity and asset prices. Turning to the crypto sector, per Tradingview data, the current market cap is approximately $1.033T. Yesterday, the market's upward trend hit a roadblock at $1.04T, which corresponded with a surge in trading volume based on the volume profile indicator. Moving forward, if the market closes below the $1.028T benchmark, it is expected to target $1.018T in the short term, indicating further declines or consolidations for many coins. Conversely, if the market manages to close above the $1.037T Fib Extended Golden Zone, yesterday's bullish candle may indicate a turnaround for the entire sector, with more capital flowing into the cryptocurrency market and resulting in a rise in most coins.

Odaily Planet Daily Newsは、IBC相互運用性レイヤー2プロジェクトに焦点を当てたPolymer Labsは、ブロックチェーンインフラストラクチャ開発チームであるNethermindとのパートナーシップを発表し、Monomer SDKを立ち上げました。 Monomerの主な特徴は次のとおりです: -Cosmos SDKとABCIの互換性：Monomerは、任意のCosmos SDKまたはABCI互換のアプリケーションチェーンをイーサリアム上のRollupとしてデプロイできるようにします。 -カスタマイズと柔軟性: 多くのEthereum RollupフレームワークがEVM互換性に焦点を当てているのとは異なり、MonomerはCosmos SDKを通じて幅広いカスタマイズオプションをサポートしており、基本的なキーバリュー(key-value)ストレージや状態のコミットデータ構造の置換を含む。 -高級開発者サポート：Cosmosテクノロジースタックには豊富なドキュメントとリソースサポートがあり、開発者が採用および革新しやすくなっています。 -イノベーションの導入：Monomerは、Cosmosの革新的な技術をEthereumエコシステムに統合するための技術ツールボックスを強化するために、SkipのBlock SDKなどのものを含めて、Ethereum開発者が利用できる技術ツールを提供しています。 - 多様な仮想マシンのサポート：開発者は、異なるタイプの仮想マシン（EVMとCosmWasmを含む）を使用して、ロールアップを展開し、アプリケーション固有のロジックをGoで記述することができます。仮想マシンに依存する必要はありません。 Monomerのロードマップには、CometBFTベースのソーターの統合と、組み込みオラクルマシンとしてSkipのSlinkyの使用が含まれており、これらの技術改善はMonomerの運用方法や他のシステムとの相互作用を向上させ、プラットフォームをより強力で汎用性のあるものにします。

$KEY $CFX $MDT まともな値動きと高い潜在力

Financial Markets See Changes in Fed Funds Rate, Yield Curve, and Correlation Between Stocks and Bond Yields Fed Funds Rate Expectations: The Fed funds rate is a key interest rate that the Federal Reserve uses to manage the economy. There has been a shift in expectations regarding the future path of the fed funds rate, with investors anticipating a more aggressive stance from the central bank. Specifically, there are predictions of an additional 75 basis points increase during the current cycle. This has implications for various financial instruments, including bonds and stocks. Yield Curve Steepening: The yield curve is a graph that plots the yields of bonds with different maturities. Recently, there has been a growing consensus among investors that the yield curve will become steeper over the next 12 months. This means that the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates will widen. The implications of a steep yield curve could be significant for various sectors of the economy, such as banks and housing. Stocks and Bond Yields Correlation: Typically, when stocks rise, bond yields fall, and vice versa. However, in recent weeks, stocks and bond yields have been rising together. This positive correlation is a departure from the norm and could have implications for how investors diversify their portfolios.

From Inflation to Systemic Credit Events: How Investor Sentiment is Shifting As of March 2023, investors are more worried about a systemic credit event rather than inflation as the key risk to markets. This shift in concern highlights the fragile state of the global economy and the uncertainty around the future. The fear of a systemic credit event replacing inflation as the key risk to markets is a reflection of the ongoing instability in the financial system. A systemic credit event occurs when a disruption in the financial system causes a widespread default of debt obligations, leading to a ripple effect throughout the economy. This can lead to a collapse of the financial system and trigger an economic recession. The shift in investor sentiment is a cause for concern, as the market is becoming increasingly pessimistic about the outlook for the global economy. The fear of stagflation, a phenomenon where inflation and stagnation occur simultaneously, has also been rising. According to the latest FMS investor survey, expectations for stagflation have remained above 80% for 10 months in a row. Investors have never held such strong conviction about the economic outlook. The continued uncertainty surrounding the global economy has led to a significant shift in investor behavior. Many investors are now focusing on more defensive investment strategies, such as investing in gold and other safe-haven assets. Others are investing in stocks that are more resilient to economic downturns, such as healthcare and technology. The increasing pessimism among investors highlights the need for governments and central banks to take proactive measures to stabilize the global economy. This may include fiscal and monetary policy interventions, such as stimulus packages, interest rate cuts, and quantitative easing measures. These policies can help to boost economic activity and restore investor confidence in the markets. In conclusion, the shift in investor sentiment from stubborn inflation to a systemic credit event is a worrying trend that highlights the fragility of the global economy. The fear of stagflation has also been rising, further exacerbating investor concerns. It is important for governments and central banks to take proactive measures to stabilize the economy and restore investor confidence in the markets.

PANews 3月15日消息，据官方消息，基于ZK的可编程隐私Layer1区块链Manta Network宣布，基于零知识证明（ZK）的隐私转账协议MantaPay正式在其先行网Calamari上线；待主网上线后，MantaPay将正式于主网部署。 据悉，MantaPay是基于ZK技术的、支持多资产的去中心化隐私转账协议，用户可将 ERC20等多种类型的资产，桥接至MantaPay，实现隐私转账，未来可支持ERC721、ERC1155等NFT资产及SBT隐私转账。MantaPay也提供Viewing Key ，支持用户在需要时自主披露信息。

Fund managers opt for safety: FMS cash allocations above average The Fund Manager Survey [FMS] has unveiled two key market trends. Firstly, cash allocations - the percentage of cash held by fund managers in their portfolio - are currently exceeding their long-term average, indicating a possible preference for caution or risk-aversion among fund managers. Secondly, sector allocations - the distribution of investments across industries - show that fund managers are favoring healthcare, staples, and materials sectors, which may indicate greater potential for profitability. Conversely, fund managers appear to be reducing their allocation towards discretionary, utilities, and tech sectors, suggesting they perceive these areas as comparatively less attractive or riskier in the current market climate.

PANews 3月19日消息，据官方推特，General Bytes加密货币ATM服务在3月17和18号遭到攻击，攻击者利用系统里的上传接口上传并运行了恶意的Java程序，然后攻击者获得了服务器里数据库的权限和热钱包提币API Key。据慢雾MistTrack统计，损失大约180万美元。目前官方已发布事件公告和修复方案。据此前消息，General Bytes在2022年8月也遇到了安全事件，但官方没有披露是否有加密货币被盗。

金色财经报道，据General Bytes官方推特消息，General Bytes 加密货币 ATM 服务在3月17、18号受到攻击，攻击者利用系统里的上传接口上传并运行了恶意的Java程序，然后攻击者获得了服务器里数据库的权限和热钱包提币API Key。 根据慢雾MistTrack统计，损失大约180万美金。目前官方已发布事件公告和修复方案，相关用户如有运营此类服务可以立即联系官方。此前消息，General Bytes在2022年8月也遇到了安全事件，但官方没有披露是否有加密货币被盗。

Food for thought: Global Food Prices Decline Global food prices have decreased for the eleventh consecutive month, while inflation has increased in the US and Europe, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index. This decline is due to falling cooking oils and dairy product prices, while grain and meat prices remain stable and sugar prices rise. Despite the current prices being higher than pre-Covid levels, they have dropped by 18% from their peak. However, supermarket prices may still be high due to elevated transportation, energy, and labor costs. There are signs that prices could soon decline as demand for beef, pork, and chicken decreases. The decline in global food prices could have several potential implications for global financial markets. Firstly, it could have a positive impact on inflation, which has been a key concern for central banks around the world. Lower food prices could help ease price pressures and lower inflation, which could ultimately lead to a less hawkish monetary policy stance from central banks. This could impact interest rates, bond markets, and currency exchange rates. Secondly, the decline in food prices could affect commodity markets, particularly for agricultural commodities such as wheat, corn, and soybeans. Lower food prices could lead to lower demand for these commodities, resulting in a decrease in their prices. This could impact the profits of companies that produce these commodities and the economies of countries that rely heavily on agricultural exports. Thirdly, the decline in food prices could have an impact on consumer spending and confidence. Lower food prices could lead to increased disposable income for consumers, which could result in increased spending in other areas. This could be positive for companies in sectors such as retail, hospitality, and leisure. However, it could also lead to a decrease in consumer confidence if consumers perceive lower food prices as a sign of economic weakness. Overall, the decline in global food prices could have both positive and negative implications for global financial markets, depending on how investors and policymakers interpret it. It is too early to predict the exact impact, but financial analysts and investors are likely to closely monitor this trend in the coming months. For your information, here’s an overview of commodity price changes over the last year: Sugar: +11% US CPI: +6.4% Gold: -4% Soybeans: -9% Corn: -14% Copper: -15% Silver: -16% Gasoline: -16% Heating Oil: -17% Coffee: -20% Brent Crude: -22% Zinc: -22% WTI Crude: -26% Cotton: -30% Natural Gas: -36% Wheat: -37% Lumber: -65%

ウォーレン・バフェットはかつて「他人が貪欲なときは恐れ、他人が恐れているときは貪欲になれ」と言いました。 しかし、売買の最良の機会をどのように特定するのでしょうか? ここでは、エントリー戦略とエグジット戦略を計画するのに役立つ、基本的だが便利な指標のリストを示します。 強調されている主要な指標には、ロングポジションとショートポジションのバランスをとり、潜在的な市場反転の兆候を示す可能性があるデリバティブ市場の資金調達率が含まれます。 建玉データは、未決済取引の合計規模を明らかにすることで、市場心理を洞察することもできます。 これらおよびその他の重要なデータポイントを追跡するには、Coinglass や GMX の統計ページなどのツールをお勧めします。 フィボナッチ リトレースメントは、潜在的な投資のエントリーポイントとエグジットポイントを特定するのにも役立ちます。 ただし、これらの指標は市場の理解を深め、取引の計画に役立つため、より広範な戦略の一部である必要があります。

Tokenomics: A Love Story Between Tokens and Economics Tokenomics, the marriage of "token" and "economics", governs the financial principles that guide the success of a token. Like any thriving relationship, the balance of supply and demand is key. While supply dictates the fate of a token in the long run, demand is the fuel that keeps it running. Understanding the interplay between emissions, inflation, deflation, token burns, token allocation, and vesting, as well as market cap, can help investors make informed decisions on which tokens to embrace. Whether you're after a token that offers a good ROI, boasts utility, or is driven by a cult following, tokenomics holds the key to unlocking its full potential. For curious minds, a brief explanatory article can be found here: https://www.gate.io/posts/3579154

Inflation, Recession, and Financial Stability: What Investors Need to Know Despite recent turmoil in the banking industry, there is evidence that we may see a positive scenario where inflation cools to manageable levels without the economy sinking into a recession. The Federal Reserve has adopted a less hawkish tone and signaled the end of interest rate hikes, but inflation still needs to come down further before the central bank is comfortable with price levels. This means that monetary policy will remain tight, leading to tighter financial conditions and possibly lower stock valuations. While recession risks have intensified recently, consumers are coming from a strong financial position, with unemployed people finding jobs, those with jobs getting raises, and many having excess savings to tap into. Therefore, any downturn is unlikely to turn into an economic calamity, given the financial health of consumers and businesses. For the curious minds, I’ve gathered and summarized some of the key data from last week in this article: [https://www.gate.io/posts/3578996](https://www.gate.io/posts/3578996?type=comment)

Odaily星球日报讯 Manta Network宣布推出基于零知识证明（ZK）的隐私NFT / SBT发行平台NPO（NFT Private Offering）。NPO建立在zkAddress和MantaPay的ZK电路之上。Manta Network将ZK复杂性抽象出来，开发者无需了解技术或密码学知识，通过使用SDK即可发行隐私NFT和SBT。zkNFT和zkSBT具备NFT / SBT相同的易用性，且具有即插即用性，开发者可将其与Web2 App或Web3 DApp连接，从而将链上信息，通过ZK Proof Key与链下应用绑定，创造全新应用。

Banking Updates: Credit Suisse and SVB Financial Group Face Challenges Credit Suisse is facing a liquidity crisis, and the Swiss National Bank is taking steps to prevent the situation from deteriorating. The authorities have decided to provide $54 billion of liquidity through a covered loan facility and standard central bank lending to support Credit Suisse's funding position. The hope is that this backstop will keep private sector liquidity providers engaged with Credit Suisse. In addition, the authorities are providing more information on Credit Suisse's capital, liquidity, and asset portfolio to reassure investors and counterparties about its finances and assets. This includes limited unrealized losses on bonds net of hedges and the quality of the large loan book funders ultimately finance. Furthermore, Credit Suisse is taking advantage of its improved liquidity to launch buybacks of some debt securities. This move improves equity at the margin and engineers a near-term short squeeze, reversing dynamics associated with bail-in risk. However, the key vulnerability remains: the Swiss National Bank can provide $54 billion of liquidity and still be well collateralized. But given the nature of Credit Suisse's assets, it cannot escalate without taking on a lot of credit risk. This would have to be mitigated with additional equity, likely involving bail-in of Credit Suisse's debt. So there is a risk of returning to unstable dynamics. SVB Financial Group has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, but its securities and funds continue to operate as normal. The Chapter 11 process will allow SVB Financial Group to evaluate strategic alternatives for its businesses and assets, especially SVB Capital and SVB Securities. The hope is to preserve the value of the company and sell off parts of the capital structure for pennies on the dollar.

The Inflation Conundrum: Cooling Off or Just a Temporary Reprieve? The Consumer Price Index [CPI] is an important economic indicator that measures the average change over time in the prices of goods and services commonly consumed by households. In this particular instance, the CPI reading for a particular month showed a 6.0% inflation rate, which is a relatively high number. However, it is important to look beyond the headline figure and examine the underlying factors contributing to inflation. The report suggests that there was generally sticky core inflation, which refers to inflation that is not driven by temporary factors, and this was particularly evident in the food sector. Rent and shelter costs also continued to increase, which is a concerning trend given the important role of housing in the economy. On the other hand, the report noted that used car prices fell and energy prices decreased drastically, which helped to offset some of the inflationary pressures. In addition, goods inflation continued to retreat, suggesting that supply chain issues may be starting to ease. One key area of concern highlighted in the report is the services economy, which remains a sticky part of the inflation picture. The bulk of the contribution to inflation in this sector comes from shelter, reflecting the ongoing strength of the housing market. This is an area that will need to be closely monitored, as any sustained increase in housing costs could have broader implications for the economy as a whole. Overall, while there has been a cooling of inflation, it is important to pay attention to the pace of disinflation and whether good inflation will return, while services inflation remains sticky. These factors will be closely watched by policymakers and economists alike, as they work to manage the economy in the months and years ahead.

The Fed's Magic Touch: How the 'Fed Put' is Boosting Investor Confidence Lending rates are a critical component of the financial system, as they determine the cost of borrowing money. The interbank lending rate, which is the rate at which banks lend money to each other, is closely monitored by economists and analysts. The Federal Reserve's benchmark rate, also known as the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks lend to each other overnight to meet reserve requirements. The difference between these two rates is known as the spread, and it can fluctuate based on market conditions. According to recent reports, the spread between interbank lending rates and the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate has widened significantly. This means that banks are charging each other higher rates to borrow money, which could have several implications for the broader economy. For example, it could make it more expensive for businesses and consumers to obtain loans, which could slow down economic growth. Another factor contributing to the current economic climate is the discount window. The discount window is a tool used by the Federal Reserve to provide short-term loans to banks. When banks are unable to obtain funding from other sources, they can borrow from the discount window to meet their liquidity needs. Recently, banks have been borrowing record amounts from the discount window, surpassing the previous all-time high set during the 2008 financial crisis. The surge in borrowing from the discount window suggests that banks are facing significant financial challenges, potentially due to the ongoing pandemic and economic uncertainty. The Federal Reserve's decision to provide more liquidity through the discount window could help alleviate some of these pressures. Finally, the term "Fed Put" refers to the idea that the Federal Reserve will step in to support financial markets when they are under stress. This could involve buying assets or implementing other measures to stabilize the economy. Recently, the Federal Reserve has been increasing the size of its balance sheet, which is a key indicator of its involvement in financial markets. The largest increase in the balance sheet since March 2020 suggests that the Federal Reserve is once again stepping in to provide support, thereby reinforcing the "Fed Put" phenomenon.

US Economic Recovery Stalls as Industrial Production Slows According to the latest economic data, the US industrial production index declined by 0.25% year-over-year in February, marking the first annual decrease in this metric since February 2021. Industrial production, which measures the output of the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors, is an important indicator of the health of the US economy, as it reflects the overall level of activity in these key industries. The decline in industrial production was driven by a 3.6% decrease in mining output, as well as a 1.2% decline in utility production, partially offset by a 0.3% increase in manufacturing output. Manufacturing production accounts for the majority of the industrial production index, so any changes in this metric can have a significant impact on the overall index. Despite the modest increase in manufacturing output of 0.1% from the previous month, the sector's year-over-year performance was disappointing, with a 1.0% decline compared to the previous year. However, the monthly increase in manufacturing output was better than expected, as economists had predicted a 0.3% drop in output. This positive outcome was partially due to an upward revision of January's manufacturing output, which was initially reported as a 1.0% month-over-month increase but was revised upward to a 1.3% increase. Overall, the latest data suggests that the decline in industrial production, coupled with the lackluster performance of manufacturing output, may be cause for concern among investors and policymakers, who will be closely monitoring these metrics for signs of future economic growth.

Food for thought: When to Be Contrarian Financial markets are often seen as a reflection of reality, but in reality, they can be quite different. The reason for this is that markets tend to project out linear valuations based on recent trends, which means that they can become disconnected from the underlying reality. This is especially true in times of bull or bear markets when the market is either above or below reality. The best time to sell in the market, therefore, is not necessarily when reality is bad but when everyone is doing well in real life. This is because the market has applied an exponential multiple for things to continue, and it is only a matter of time before the market starts to come back down to earth. Similarly, the best time to buy is when we are in a depression, and a linear down projection is multiplied out. In this way, being contrarian can be a wise strategy because the consensus at extremes in financial markets causes the market to be at the furthest place away from reality, which then starts swinging back. However, being contrarian is also wrong because you are sitting at a place that is also far away from reality in the other direction. The market moves in a pendulum, and so you benefit inversely. In other words, you need to be mindful of where the market is relative to the macro environment and what the consensus pricing is, and then decide whether or not to take a contrarian approach. The key takeaway is that learning macro is not just about investing based on the findings themselves, but understanding where financial markets are relative to macro and what is the consensus pricing out linearly in which direction. At the extremes, being contrarian works well, but in the middle, the trend is your friend. In summary, financial markets can often be disconnected from reality due to the linear projections they make based on recent trends. Being contrarian can be a wise strategy when the market is at an extreme, but in the middle, it's best to follow the trend. Understanding macro can help investors make informed decisions about where the market is relative to reality and the consensus pricing out linearly.