Most people gamble on prediction markets.

I arbitraged them.

Here’s the exact playbook I used to pull in $100k from fragmented, inefficient prediction markets - without gambling on anything.

Step 1: Understand the Game

Prediction markets let you bet on real-world outcomes.

• “Will Ethereum hit $5k by December?”

• “Will MrBeast run for president?”

• “Will Kanye West launch a coin?”

Each market has its own crowd.

Each crowd has its own bias.

That means different platforms price the same event… differently.

That’s where the edge is.

If Site A says “Yes” = 40¢ and Site B says “No” = 55¢…

You just locked in 5¢ profit, no matter what happens.

That’s arbitrage.

But it gets better…

Step 2: Find Your Edge

One thing that worked well for me was multi-outcome markets.

That’s where things break.

Examples:

• Who wins F1 this weekend?

• Which party wins the UK election?

• Who gets eliminated next on Love Island?

More outcomes = more complexity = more mispricing.

On paper, all outcomes should add up to 100%.

In reality? I regularly saw markets adding up to 110%.

Why? Because most platforms bake in a hidden fee — the “overround.”

And many let the crowd set the odds.

That means fat, juicy inefficiencies.

Step 3: How to Know if It’s Arbitrage

Here’s the rule:

You find the same event priced on different platforms.

You pick the lowest price for each outcome.

If the total is under $1, you’ve got arbitrage.

Let me show you a real one.

The market: Who will be the next Pope?

Two platforms were running it side-by-side.

Here’s how it looked:

Polymarket/Myriad

Now we pick the cheapest price for each outcome:

• Pietro Parolin: 35.2¢ (Myriad)

• Luis Antonio Tagle: 30¢ (Polymarket)

• Other: 32.7¢ (Myriad)

Total: 97.9¢

You buy all three.

One of them has to win.

You’re guaranteed to get $1 back.

Profit: 2.1¢ per trade = 2.1% risk-free return.

That’s arbitrage.

You’re not betting on who becomes Pope.

You’re betting that two platforms can’t agree on who it might be.

And when they disagree — you collect.

P.S. This isn’t the best opportunity. It’s just one I spotted today.

Myriad had way less liquidity, but there were 2 more sites showing similar spreads.

If you’re watching more markets, you find bigger edges.

I usually only enter if the APY is above 60% (APY = (Spread / Days Until Resolution) × 365)

This market had a 2.1% spread and resolved in 29 days:

(0.021 / 29) × 365 ≈ 26.4% APY

Not good enough for me.

Capital locked for a month for a 26% APY? Pass.

But if that same spread had only 7 days left?

That’s over 100% APY - and I’d be in.

How do I find these jucy APY?

Step 4: You’re Playing Against Time

Prediction market arb is a latency game.

Once a price diverges, you usually have minutes, not hours.

Someone posts a rumor.

One market updates.

Another lags behind.

That lag is your entire edge.

If you can - automate this part.

When I started I had tabs open for 7 different platforms.

Refreshed like a psycho.

Used price alerts in Discord, Telegram, Twitter.

Sometimes I spotted spreads just by muscle memory.

The faster you act, the more you make.

Hesitate for 5 minutes, and the spread is gone.

The best spread I managed to get was 18%, and with good size too.

Make sure you have liquidity ready to be deployed on each market and you know all their fees.

Step 5: Exit Early

Most people wait for resolution. I don’t.

I made most of my profit before the outcome was known.

Let’s say I buy all outcomes for 94¢.

That locks in a 6¢ spread. One of them pays out $1.

But I don’t have to wait.

If the market tightens - and those same shares can now be sold for a combined 98¢ or 99¢ - I exit.

It only works if all legs hold up.

If one pumps and the others dump, there’s no exit.

So I watch the whole basket.

When the combined value rises, I’m out.

This way you can drastically boost your APY and rotate between markets quicker.

Bonus Tips:

• Look for overlapping events (e.g. “Trump wins 2024” vs “Republicans win”) - hidden arb lives there.

• Target small markets - more mispricing, less competition.

• Use less popular sites - more spreads, better edge + possible airdrops

• Read resolution criteria - one word can flip the outcome

• Always triple-check the orderbook and prices you buy at. Include all fees in calculations.

It took me 2.5 months to hit $100k.

Some weeks were dead.

Others were nonstop.

More volatility = more spread.

So if it’s quiet, don’t stress. Keep clicking.

There’s always another broken market.

I hope you’ve found this article helpful.

Follow me @PixOnCh ain for more.

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