#加密市场回涨

Trump announced a 5-day delay in strikes against Iranian energy facilities, claiming productive dialogue had taken place. This pattern of extreme threats followed by concessions is his typical deal-making style, with the core aim of suppressing elevated oil prices and boosting US stocks to ease inflation pressure. Iranian officials quickly denied the existence of negotiations, calling it psychological warfare, and stated they would not return to the negotiating table unless the US ceased its aggression. This appears more like a delaying tactic; once the 5-day deadline expires, if Iran makes no substantive concessions, the situation could deteriorate again.

BTC's 70000 level is both a psychological barrier and a watershed. If a ceasefire framework is genuinely reached within these 5 days, BTC could challenge the historical high of 73700, and with tailwinds from institutional capital such as MicroStrategy's continued purchases, target the 80000 level. However, given Iran's firm denial, once the 5-day observation period ends and both sides experience another scare, BTC could replay the script of good news fully priced in, pulling back to the 65000 - 67000 support zone. Currently, it appears more like short-term sentiment recovery. Until Iran formally agrees or a third party confirms mediation progress, it's advisable to remain cautious. BTC faces very heavy resistance around 72000; only after holding steady for 48 hours at this level can a reversal be considered preliminarily established.