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ETH technique chart:
1. Weekly level:
1. Due to progress in Iran-US negotiations and positive news catalysts, this week's candlestick currently shows a bullish large candle breaking out, with three consecutive bullish days from the bottom, and breaking through the long-standing downward trendline resistance, forming a W-bottom pattern. The current price faces resistance at the W-bottom neckline, around 2400. If the neckline is broken, based on a 1:1 proportional upward measurement, the upward space could reach around 2800. As long as the price does not fall back below the downward trendline, the bullish trend can be maintained.
Regarding volume, volume has been shrinking week by week. Although this week's rise has not yet seen volume expansion, it is still Tuesday, and further volume confirmation is needed to prevent a false breakout.
Bollinger Bands: The chart shows a downward channel with three downward sloping bands. Currently, the middle band (MA20) resistance and the neckline resistance around 2400 are resonating.
Fibonacci levels: Resistance levels are clearly defined at 0.382 at 2400, 0.5 at 2600 (resonating with the lower shadow of the pin), and 0.618 near 2800. The 0.236 level at 2150 can serve as a stop-loss point.
MACD: A bullish crossover below the zero line indicates a shift from bearish volume to bullish, leaning bullish.
RSI: Near the oversold zone, rebounding upwards. The last time RSI was at this level was when the price was at 1384, indicating a bullish bias.
KDJ: Moving upward along with the price and the moving averages, showing strong momentum.
2. Daily level:
Yesterday's candlestick closed as a large bullish candle, driven by positive news sentiment. The key point now is whether the price can break through the 2400 neckline. There are two resistance signals above:
(1) The daily chart shows a bearish TD sequence at the current 2400 resistance; in the previous cycle, the price at this level was a TD9, with a severe correction.
(2) There is a Vegas resistance on the daily chart. According to the Vegas system, when Vegas crosses below EMA576 and EMA676 forming a death cross, and EMA12 crosses below Vegas confirming a true breakdown, when the price returns near 2500, it indicates a short position according to the Vegas system. Therefore, 2400 is a resonance resistance of both weekly and daily charts. Whether it can be broken determines if the bullish trend can continue.
Support: Below, there is support near 2200 from the weekly descending trendline plus the lower boundary of the ascending channel. For long positions, stop-loss can be placed at 2150; if it does not break 2150, the outlook remains bullish.
Secondary indicators: RSI in the overbought zone shows a correction signal; the last correction at this level was relatively weak, leaning bearish.
KDJ in the overbought zone also shows a correction signal, bearish.
MACD: Slightly oscillating with no clear direction—this resistance level has a higher probability of a correction.
Scenario analysis:
(1) Bullish scenario: Price faces resistance at 2400, with weekly neckline resistance plus daily TD9 signal, and pulls back as expected. If the correction reaches above 2200, supported by the weekly descending trendline and the lower boundary of the ascending channel, it can continue upward, with a stop-loss at 2150.
(2) Bearish scenario: Price at 2400 experiences a correction, breaking below 2150 and falling back into the consolidation zone.