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Ray Dalio's gold defense missed an interesting timing. Last week, the founder of Bridgewater was explaining on the All-In Podcast that bitcoin should not be compared to gold, while at that very moment, the market was showing the opposite. On the day they listened to Dalio's statements, gold fell by 3%, while bitcoin only declined by 0.7%. The asset that should be a safe haven, and which is supposed to be protected in such crises, was hit harder than gold.
Dalio's arguments are well known: no central bank support, lack of privacy, quantum computing threat. While emphasizing "there is only one gold," he also highlighted the historical importance of gold when viewed from the perspective of how much 9 full gold bars are worth. But market behavior tells a different story. In recent months, bitcoin fell by 45%, while gold rose by 30%, surpassing $5,100. But this week? Both showed volatility. Bitcoin experienced selling pressure on Saturday, recovered on Sunday, and rejected $70,000 on Tuesday. It is currently trading around $67,000-$68,000. Gold initially rose but then gave back its gains.
Dalio is not entirely opposed, in fact. He holds 1% of his portfolio in bitcoin and recommended a 15% allocation last summer. In this environment where the US debt trajectory and the global order are changing, he says investors need to rethink ways to preserve their wealth. But what happened this week shows that neither gold nor bitcoin alone is a safe haven. Both moved with volatility. Perhaps diversification and considering different asset classes is necessary. It is also interesting that Dalio's claims that weekend movements in crypto derivatives predicted Monday's opening with 89% accuracy, meaning crypto markets lead price discovery with 38% higher trading volume compared to weekday levels. Whether gold is still the safest haven remains one of the actively debated topics in the market.