Bitcoin : 23,7 milliards de dollars américains de livraison annuelle imminente : les tendances du marché et les prévisions après chaque grande liquidation

【BlockBeats】Bitcoin today at 16:00 (UTC+8) faces the largest annual settlement in history — a scale of 23.7 billion USD. This number looks frightening, but let’s review the past years’ records to see how the market typically reacts before and after such major events.

Starting with the end of 2023. The annual settlement on December 29 last year was about 11 billion USD, with the pain point at 42,000 USD. During the lead-up to the settlement, the market was tightly compressed, with BTC fluctuating between 42,000 and 43,000 USD, with almost no significant volatility. Once the settlement was over, this “compression cage” disappeared, and Bitcoin suddenly surged with high volume, reaching 48,000 USD within a few days, kicking off a unilateral trend at the beginning of 2024.

By the end of March 2023 (quarterly settlement on March 29), the scale increased to 15 billion USD, with the pain point at 65,000 USD. During that period, the market was tense due to halving expectations, with prices oscillating between 60,000 and 70,000 USD. Active hedging positions caused short-term suppression. The story after settlement was quite satisfying: once gamma hedging was released, BTC broke upward, soaring above 70,000 USD just before the halving, and the bull market accelerated from there.

The quarterly settlement on June 28 (170 billion USD, pain point at 60,000 USD) was less smooth. Before settlement, the market entered a correction phase, with narrow fluctuations around 60,000 USD, and selling pressure increased significantly. Although volatility increased after expiration, BTC initially fell then rebounded, maintaining a correction trend overall without an immediate surge.

On September 27, the situation changed (180 billion USD scale, pain point at 62,000 USD). Under the influence of Federal Reserve policies, prices were suppressed in the 55,000-65,000 USD range, with liquidity tightening. After settlement, BTC broke upward, aided by expectations of rate cuts, triggering a rebound that pushed prices close to 70,000 USD.

Looking at the December 27 annual settlement (198 billion USD, pain point at 75,000 USD) — during the peak of the bull market. Prices oscillated between 70,000 and 80,000 USD, with options traders leaning bullish. Upward pressure was not very strong, but holiday liquidity was weak. After settlement, hedging was released, and BTC broke through 80,000 USD, with the Christmas rally continuing to push prices higher.

Forecasting several settlements in 2025: before the quarterly settlement at the end of March (140 billion USD, pain point at 85,000 USD), the market fluctuated around 80,000-90,000 USD, supported by favorable regulation sentiment. After expiration, BTC broke above 85,000 USD, starting a rally toward 100,000 USD. The June 27 quarterly settlement (145 billion USD, pain point at 102,000 USD) saw mixed market sentiment, with short-term corrections after settlement but overall upward trend. The August 29 settlement (over 140 billion USD, pain point at 116,000 USD) had weak holiday liquidity, with prices oscillating narrowly between 110,000 and 120,000 USD, gamma trap effects being evident, but BTC quickly recovered after short-term dips, maintaining the bull market pattern.

Now, it’s time for today’s big annual settlement. With a scale of 23.6 billion USD and a pain point at 96,000 USD. Before settlement, holiday liquidity was already thin, compounded by rising precious metal prices boosting safe-haven sentiment. BTC was firmly pinned between 85,000 and 90,000 USD, with gamma hedging exerting considerable pressure.

And after the settlement? Once the “cage” disappears, market volatility will be significantly released. Many analysts are optimistic about breaking above 90,000 USD, with some even expecting close to 100,000 USD. The new year’s rally could thus unfold. The historical pattern is clear: major settlements usually catalyze market acceleration — barring black swan events, this time is unlikely to be an exception.