Emilyvuong

The number of unemployment benefit claims last week was 212,000 applications, which is lower than the forecast of 216,000. Meanwhile, the number of people continuing to receive benefits was 1.833 million, lower than the forecast of 1.858 million and also down from 1.864 million the previous week.

The United States is facing a rare earth shortage right before the Trump - Xi summit.
Reuters reports that the U.S. aerospace and semiconductor supply chains are critically lacking yttrium and scandium—two essential metals for defense, jet engines, lightweight alloys, and next-generation chip manufacturing.
Almost all of the supply of these two metals comes from China.
Since Beijing tightened export controls in April, yttrium exports to the U.S. have dropped to only 17 tons over 8 months, compared to 333 tons in the previous 8 months, nearly freezing the flow.
The U.S. currently has no commerc

🟢Jane Street behind the start of the 2022 downtrend
Summary of the latest allegations in Terraform's lawsuit against Jane Street:
🟠 From 2018 to early 2022, Jane Street signed direct trading agreements with Terraform Labs.
- Bryce Pratt - former Terraform intern became the bridge between Jane Street and the Terra engineering team.
- Non-public data was shared under the guise of “investment discussion”.
-> Marking Jane Street as an insider.
🟠 7/5/2022 - The withdrawal before the peg broke
- 17:44 EST, Terraform quietly withdrew $150M UST from Curve 3pool.
- Less than 10 minutes later, Jane S

🇷🇺 Russia begins gold sales
The Central Bank of Russia has sold reserve gold in January as prices are hovering near historic highs.
🔸 Gold holdings decreased by 300,000 ounces
🔸 Total reserves now at 74.5 million ounces
🔸 This is the first decline since October
Although the sales are very small compared to total reserves, there is no more reasonable explanation than "taking profits" when prices are at record highs.

Bonds have become a frequently traded asset class rather than a hedge as before:
Before COVID, the stock–bond correlation was mostly negative ( below 0). This means:
- When stocks crash -> money flows into bonds
- The 60/40 portfolio commonly seen in funds becomes effective with diversification.
Since COVID, a “post-2020 structural shift” has emerged according to the IMF. Stocks and bonds tend to move in the same direction -> traditional portfolios of funds are no longer effective.
Monetary policy and inflation have made bonds no longer a safe haven. Risk parity and diversified 60/40 funds hav

📍 Since the all-time high in October, the spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced the largest capital outflow ever.
The total BTC holdings in spot ETFs have decreased by approximately ~100.3K BTC compared to the ATH level.
This is the largest drawdown recorded since the emergence of #Bitcoin ETFs.

Chart $GLD and BTC over the past 3 years.
$GLD is the ticker for the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, which mimics the price of gold.
Both yield approximately a 39% annual return. But the paths they take are worlds apart.
Bitcoin is like youth—impulsive, volatile, with large swings—completely different from an asset with a 5,000-year history.

🟠For the first time since 2005, the correlation between the Yen and the Topix index has turned positive.
Simply put, the Yen and Japanese stocks are rising together.
Historically in the Japanese market, this is a rare occurrence. Usually, a strengthening Yen puts pressure on stocks because it affects exports. But this time, both are moving upward.
Over the past 12 months:
- The Yen has strengthened by about +1% against the USD
- Topix has increased by +38%
In the past, the pattern of “strong currency + rising stocks” often appeared during long-term growth cycles such as:
- Japan 1982–1990
- G