Jamesvanst

The obituaries keep coming in.

Open interest down over past 24 hours
Funding rate negative
Shorts are covering which is driving the move
Need continued spot buying to squeeze higher

BTC supply in loss just hit 10M coins, the fourth-highest reading ever.
A further 70K coins are in loss from purchases between Feb. 6 and today.
Circulating supply hits 20M BTC next week, that’s 50% in loss.
History suggests that’s enough capital destruction for a bear market bottom.

Long-term holder supply has increased by 400k BTC since November 23rd.
LTH behaviour changed post-ETF, as clearly seen in the supply structure (first image).
Zooming in on the two previous LTH supply drawdowns (Yen carry & Liberation Day tariffs).
The bottom had already occurred by the time LTH supply started increasing (second image).

Here are the six outstanding convertible notes for MSTR.
The one everyone is interested in is the first put date: the September 2027 put.
If the September 2027 put date were today, it would likely be a non event for MSTR.
With the stock at $130, conversion is out of the money ($182 conversion price), but the bond is currently trading at $111 which means investors value the credit and the remaining optionality above par.
Viewing MSTR's near term credit risk as manageable, despite the stock sitting below conversion price. Since the put only returns $100, holders would have no economic ince

Here are the six outstanding convertible notes for MSTR.
The one everyone is interested in is the first put date: the September 2027 put.
If the September 2027 put date were today, it would likely be a non event for MSTR.
With the stock at $130, conversion is out of the money ($182 conversion price), but the bond is currently trading at $111 which means investors value the credit and the remaining optionality above par. Viewing MSTR's near term credit risk as manageable, despite the stock sitting below conversion price.
Since the put only returns $100, holders would have no economic incentiv

This first chart shows Bitcoin's supply composite in April 2022, just before the Luna, Celsius, and 3AC collapse. A huge supply gap below.
The second chart shows bitcoin's supply composite now. Where the air gap is now above not below.