Nobel laureate condemns: Trump's group doing this is equivalent to treason

Author: Observer Network Wang Yi

Just 15 minutes before U.S. President Trump withdrew his threat to strike Iran’s power plants, citing “productive dialogue with Iran,” approximately $580 million worth of oil futures quickly changed hands. This “coincidence” has led to rampant speculation about insider trading. Paul Krugman, the 2008 Nobel Laureate in Economics, openly stated: this is treason.

On March 24 local time, Krugman wrote in his personal Substack column: “When corporate executives or their associates use confidential information for personal financial gain, it constitutes insider trading — which is illegal; and for those who possess national security confidential information, such as plans to bomb other countries, but exploit that information for profit, we have another term: treason.”

Krugman explained that such actions violate the most basic principle of trust for government officials, stating that officials and their acquaintances should not be allowed to leverage their positions for personal gain in critical national security decisions. He pointed out that insider trading based on national security decisions is not only unfair but also poses strategic risks, “When you can infer the same intelligence from the futures market, who needs to bribe government insiders?”

Krugman noted that the line between using national confidential information for profit and selling that confidential information directly to the highest bidder is not very distinct; once the boundary of “not profiting from highly classified information” is crossed, the differences between the two become blurred. “In fact, I would really like to know who was making these trades yesterday morning. Was it someone with direct knowledge, or was it a billionaire or trader who obtained the information through payment?”

Around 6:50 AM New York time on the morning of the 23rd, the trading volume of S&P 500 e-Mini futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange suddenly spiked in isolation, significantly deviating from the previously calm pre-market trading environment. Almost simultaneously, around 6,200 contracts worth approximately $580 million in Brent crude and West Texas intermediate crude oil futures changed hands, breaking the originally tranquil market state. Subsequently, at 7:04 AM on the 23rd, Trump posted to announce a pause in strikes against Iran.

Just minutes before Trump’s post on March 23 local time, there was an abnormal surge in oil market trading. Yahoo Finance graphic.

“This sharp and isolated spike in trading volume is particularly unusual.” Krugman analyzed that there were no significant news events at the time that could have driven such sudden large trades, and the only reasonable explanation is: someone close to Trump had advance knowledge of his actions and exploited that insider information for massive immediate profits.

According to a report by Fortune magazine on the 24th, oil market analyst Rory Johnston said that even though there is currently no concrete evidence of selling national confidential information, this trading pattern itself cannot be ignored, “Every analyst, every oil market trader is questioning the downward pressure on prices,” regardless of whether there is direct manipulation from Washington, the government’s statements have already caused traders to avoid trades based on supply and demand, “I think this may have played a significant role.”

In fact, this is not the first time the Trump administration has been accused of manipulating the stock market. The Financial Times reported on the 23rd that several hedge funds pointed out that cases of large trades occurring before official announcements from the U.S. government have become increasingly common in recent months.

A trader from a large hedge fund revealed that energy consultants have recently noticed several large trades with suspicious timing. Another portfolio manager stated that a series of large-scale and precisely timed trades have triggered a sense of “frustration” among investors.

Before the U.S. attacks on Iran and Venezuela, the prediction market platform “Polymarket” also saw large suspicious trades, betting on when the U.S. would strike Iran and Venezuela, yielding massive returns.

In April last year, just days after Trump imposed “reciprocal tariffs” on nearly all of America’s trading partners, he suddenly delayed the implementation of tariffs for 90 days. Just four hours before announcing this tariff policy change, Trump urged buying stocks on social media, resulting in a surge in U.S. stocks that day, with his company’s stock price also rising, about twice the market’s increase.

Regarding the recent market fluctuations, White House Deputy Press Secretary Kush Desai insisted: “President Trump and this administration’s sole focus is to do everything possible to maximize benefits for the American people.”

He also claimed: “The White House does not tolerate any government official profiting illegally from insider information, and any insinuation that officials are engaged in such activities without evidence is unfounded and irresponsible reporting.”

However, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Islamic Consultative Assembly, posted on social media platform X on the evening of the 23rd, exposing America’s lies. He denied that there had ever been any negotiations between Iran and the U.S., stating that Trump’s “spreading of fake news is intended to manipulate financial and oil markets and to help the U.S. and Israel out of their deep quagmire.”

Krugman also remarked that in this incident, Iran’s credibility actually exceeds that of the U.S. president, “Is he lying or living in a fantasy world? Either possibility is disturbing.”

He criticized: “You cannot expect a corrupt government to protect national security. And our government is now completely corrupt: from the president to ordinary officials, it is hard to find someone who views public office as a significant responsibility rather than an opportunity for personal gain or self-enrichment.”

“Moreover, a deeply corrupt government is often not good at waging war, no matter how much they extol the ‘warrior spirit’ and ‘lethality’. When we review the reasons for the disastrous defeat in the Iran War, arrogance and ignorance will still top the list, but severe corruption will follow closely behind,” Krugman said.