Conflict Scenarios: How an Israeli Attack on Iran Could Paralyze Gulf Oil

A recent report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a leading U.S. institution, presents alarming analyses about the possible consequences of a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran. According to the analysis, if Israel attacks the Persian country, Tehran will respond without restraint, likely targeting the oil infrastructure of countries opposing the Persian Gulf. The scenario is not just an academic hypothesis: it is a possibility that worries global energy markets.

The Iranian Offensive: Main Target is Regional Oil Infrastructure

Unlike a limited response, Iran’s primary goal would be to directly attack the oil facilities of Gulf coast countries. This is the most likely scenario according to CSIS analysts, and also the most devastating. It is not just a symbolic provocation but a strategy aimed at completely paralyzing the region’s oil extraction and export.

The difference between possible Iranian responses is crucial. While some scenarios involve direct blockades or targeted attacks, an offensive against regional infrastructure would represent a significant escalation in the conflict. Iran has the technical and military capabilities to carry out these attacks: sophisticated drones, long-range missiles, and underwater mining systems could be mobilized simultaneously against multiple targets in the region.

Four Possibilities for Oil Supply Disruption

The CSIS report outlines four plausible scenarios, each with different economic implications for the global oil market.

First Possibility: Iranian Export Blockade — If the U.S. or Israel managed to interrupt Iran’s exports by blocking Kharg Island or seizing oil tankers, global oil prices could jump immediately by $10 to $12 per barrel. However, Iran’s response would be unpredictable and potentially dangerous for American allies in the region. This scenario would be a controlled escalation but with a high risk of deviation.

Second Possibility: Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz — Using drones, missiles, and naval mines, Iran could halt the passage of approximately 18 million barrels of oil daily. Such an action would force transport operators to withdraw, causing a sharp increase in prices. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point for global energy trade, making this scenario particularly destructive.

Third Possibility: Direct Attack on Iranian Facilities — If targets were solely Iranian refineries and oil fields, prices could exceed $100 per barrel. Destroying Iran’s oil infrastructure would cause a long-term disruption in production, provoking an extreme and lasting response from Iran. It would be a devastating economic blow that could last for months or years.

Fourth Possibility: The Most Likely Scenario — Iran’s attack on the entire regional oil infrastructure would represent the maximum impact. In this context, oil prices could surge above $130 per barrel, a level that would not only affect the crude market but also completely halt natural gas exports from the region. It would be an almost total paralysis of the Persian Gulf energy system.

The Strait of Hormuz: Why There Are No Escape Routes

A crucial issue arises when analyzing regional vulnerabilities: the impossibility of bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. According to the CSIS report, logistical alternatives are extremely limited, leaving most energy exporters entirely dependent on this passage.

Saudi Arabia could redirect less than half of its exports through alternative routes. The U.S. (which operates via the port of Fujairah) would face a situation where about one-third of its exports would effectively be blocked if Hormuz were closed.

The situation for other producers is even more critical: Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar have no viable alternative route. For these countries, a closure of Hormuz would mean their exports drop to zero. This absolute dependence makes the region a critical point in the global energy system.

The Geopolitical Trap and Its Global Repercussions

What makes this analysis particularly concerning is not just the military capacity involved but the vulnerability structure of the system. Once Iran has enough reasons to respond to an Israeli attack, it would have little to lose by targeting the entire regional infrastructure. At that point, the economic consequences would transcend direct conflict.

Oil prices reaching $130 per barrel would not just be a number on a market chart. It would trigger cascading inflation for global economies, energy rationing in dependent regions, and potential paralysis of strategic sectors worldwide. Energy markets are intrinsically linked to financial markets, making any disruption a cross-border, cross-sector issue.

The inevitable conclusion of the CSIS report is that there is no room for maneuver if the situation escalates into a large-scale direct confrontation. The economic consequences would be global, immediate, and potentially catastrophic for any country dependent on Gulf energy supplies.