After the release of initial jobless claims and other data in the United States, the probability of the Fed lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in October has dropped to 83.4%.

On September 25, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, after the U.S. initial jobless claims and other data were released today, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October fell to 83.4% (down from 91.9% yesterday), while the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged rose to 16.6%. Previous reports indicated that the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 20 was 218,000, the lowest since the week of July 19, 2025, with an expectation of 235,000. The final annualized quarterly core PCE price index for the second quarter in the U.S. was 2.6%, with an expectation of 2.5%. Additionally, the final annualized quarterly real GDP for the second quarter in the U.S. was 3.8%, with an expectation of 3.30%.