XION (@burnt_xion) Token model depth breakdown and trend analysis

TL;DR

Price position: Currently $0.91-0.93, a 91% correction from ATH $10.45, building a bottom in the $0.83-0.98 range.

Token model: conservative design, over 70% of tokens locked for 4 years release, initial circulation 12.8%, staking rate 31% to maintain network security.

Technical Analysis: The trend is neutral to bearish, a breakout above $1.05 is needed to confirm a reversal.

Supply and Distribution
Total Supply: Fixed Limit of 200 Million XION
Initial circulation: 25,559,333 coins (12.8%)

Allocation structure
🔹Ecosystem incubation: 23%, released over 48 months
🔹Strategic Investors: 26.81%, 1 year cliff + 6 months three-phase unlocking
🔹Team: 20%, 1 year cliff + 8 months three-phase unlock
🔹Protocol warehouse: 15%, released over 48 months
🔹Community Launch: 15.19%, TGE Release 10.13%, Remaining Released over 48 Months

Features: The release period lasts up to 48 months, significantly longer than the market average (24-36 months), with low short-term selling pressure, but relatively insufficient liquidity.

On-chain and ecological data
(As of August 31, 2025)

🔸Circulation: ~205M XION, annual inflation 11.97%
🔸Pledge Rate: 31.04% (63.6M XION), Pledge APR 8.78%, actual yield approximately 6%
🔸Validators: 35, Nakamoto coefficient = 9
🔸Active Trading: Average of 18-20k transactions per day (peak 80k)
🔸Active addresses: 9k-30k, fluctuating with airdrops and cross-chain liquidity.
🔸Token distribution: The top 10 delegators hold 24% of the voting power, and the largest address holds 2% of the supply.

Market Liquidity

🔹Trading Volume: CEX Dominant (LBank), 24h Trading Volume 12-18M USD
🔹DEX Market Share: Less than 2% (approximately 120,000 USD), the on-chain AMM ecosystem is still not mature.
🔹Cross-chain capital flow: From July to August, the net inflow of USDC was approximately 6 million, indicating an increase in staking and DeFi demand.

Price trend prediction (reference @Surf_Copilot suggestion)

1-3 months, breaking through $1.10 → $1.27-1.35, range consolidation $0.83-1.05, breaking below $0.83 → $0.72-0.68

6-12 months, recover the 200-day moving average → $1.75-2.20, recover to $1.30-1.50, bear market continues, retest the $0.50 area

👉 Overall, I think @burnt_xion is currently in a bottoming phase, with relatively controllable risks, but upward movement needs to wait for ecological catalysts and technical breakthroughs. It can be considered to布局 in the range of $0.83-0.98, but the real trend reversal still needs to confirm above $1.05.