Coinbase valuation stretches ahead of fundamentals, says Monness as it cuts rating

Investing.com -- Monness, Crespi, Hardt downgraded Coinbase to Neutral on Monday, saying the stock has run ahead of underlying trading activity and lacks near-term catalysts to support its current valuation. The brokerage said recent gains in crypto asset prices and regulatory milestones have already been priced in, while trading volumes remain subdued and signs of real-world usage are still limited. It said it would look to revisit the stock at a lower valuation or once usage outside of trading gains traction. Shares of Coinbase have surged this year alongside the broader crypto market. But Monness noted that second-quarter crypto exchange volumes declined 2% year-over-year, with Coinbase’s own trading volumes up just 6%, well below consensus expectations for 19% growth. While July trends appear stronger, the firm said these are largely reflected in current third-quarter estimates, which assume a 60% year-over-year jump in trading volume. The firm also flagged risks to revenue tied to stablecoin activity, pointing out that the market value of USDC, the dollar-pegged token that supports much of Coinbase’s non-trading income, grew only modestly. Any rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve without a corresponding rise in USDC volume could pressure that income stream, it said. Monness maintained a positive long-term view on Coinbase’s role in the crypto ecosystem but said the near-term outlook offers limited room for upside. It estimated the stock fairly values future earnings based on optimistic assumptions and argued that better entry points may emerge as the crypto cycle matures.

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